随机-区间混合不确定性单输出模型确认指标  

Validation metric for single output models with stochastic and interval mixed uncertainty

作　　者：赵录峰[1] 吕震宙[1] 阚丽娟[2] ZHAO Lufeng;LYU Zhemhou;KAN Lijuan(School of Aeronautics,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi’an 710072,China;Equipment Management and S^ety Engineering College,Air Force Engineering University,Xi’an 710051,China)

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学航空学院,陕西西安710072 [2]空军工程大学装备管理与安全工程学院,陕西西安710051

出　　处：《国防科技大学学报》2018年第3期168-175,共8页Journal of National University of Defense Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51475370);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(3102015BJ(Ⅱ)CG009)

摘　　要：针对既有随机变量又有区间变量的模型预测结果与实验数据之间的一致性度量问题,对随机-区间混合不确定性模型确认指标进行研究。根据工程数学模型和实验过程中的不确定性来源,分析随机-区间混合不确定性模型确认的特点;运用概率方法和区间理论,提出新的随机-区间混合不确定性模型确认指标,讨论所提指标的性质,给出指标的计算方法和步骤。通过数字算例和工程算例,验证了所提指标的可行性和有效性。For the models with interval input variables and random input variables simultaneously, a validation metric was reserched to measure the agreement between the quantitative predictions from an uncertain model and relevant empirical data. With respect to different sources of uncertainty existed in engineering mathematic models and experiments, the characteristic of the validation for mmixed uncertainty was analyzed. A new validation metric for model with stochastic and interval mixed uncertainty was proposed by using the interval theory and the probability method. The properties of the proposed validation metric were discussed , and its calculation method and procedures were presented. A numerical test case and an engineering example were used to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed validation metric.

关 键 词：模型确认 指标 随机变量 区间变量 不确定性 

分 类 号：O212.4[理学—概率论与数理统计] TP391.9[理学—数学]