改进多变量灰色模型在山东省粮食产量预测中的应用  

Application of Improved Multivariable Grey Model in Grain Yield Forecasting of Shandong Province

作　　者：张含瑞 刘晓华 ZHANG Hanrui,LIU Xiaohua(School of Mathematics and Statistics Science, Ludong University, Yantai 264039, China)

机构地区：[1]鲁东大学数学与统计科学学院,山东烟台264039

出　　处：《鲁东大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第3期199-207,244,共10页Journal of Ludong University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(61174097)

摘　　要：考虑到粮食产量受多种因素的影响,本文首先应用灰色关联分析方法,选取影响粮食产量的主要因素作为变量,然后将传统的灰色GM(1,1)模型扩展为多变量灰色模型,在此基础上进行模型改进,建立基于积分变换的多变量GM(1,N)预测模型,并将其应用于山东省粮食产量的预测.结果表明,本文所建立的模型应用于粮食产量预测较前人的预测结果具有更高的预测精度.Considering the effects of various factors on grain yield,the main factors affecting grain yield were selected as variables by grey relative analysis method,and the traditional GM（1,1）model was extended to the multivariate grey model.On this basis,the model is improved,and a multivariate GM（1,N）prediction model based on integral transformation is established,and apply it to the forecast of grain production in Shandong Province.The results show that the proposed model has higher prediction accuracy than the traditional prediction method.

关 键 词：粮食产量 预测 多变量灰色模型 灰色关联分析 

分 类 号：O213.9[理学—概率论与数理统计]