一种智能变电站保护装置寿命预测方法  

A life prediction method for intelligent substation protection device

作　　者：黄涛 周鹏 赖秋频 汪祝年 王亮[2] 杨军[2] Huang Tao;Zhou Peng;Lai Qiupin;Wang Zhunian;Wang Liang;Yang Jun(State Grid Zhenjiang Power Supply Company,Zhenjiang 212001,Jiangsu,China;School of Electrical Engineering Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]国网镇江供电公司,江苏镇江212001 [2]武汉大学电气工程学院,武汉430072

出　　处：《电测与仪表》2018年第12期39-44,共6页Electrical Measurement & Instrumentation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(5127713)

摘　　要：继电保护设备剩余有效寿命预测是智能变电站二次设备状态检修的技术关键。文中提出了一种基于马尔科夫链的智能变电站继电保护设备寿命预测方法,该方法基于马尔科夫链,利用设备在线监测信息和历史运行数据获得其状态分布向量以及状态转移矩阵,进而根据可靠性原理预测其剩余有效寿命。算例分析结果表明该方法可以对保护装置未来运行状态分布和剩余寿命进行有效预测,其预测结果可以为运行人员提供参考。目前该方法已应用在实际智能变电站的二次设备在线监测系统中,有助于提高智能变电站的安全运行水平。The remaining effective life prediction of the relay protection equipment is the key technology of the secondary equipment condition maintenance of the intelligent substation. A method for predicting the life of relay protection equipment based on the Markov chain is proposed in this paper. Based on the Markov chain,the state distribution vector and the state transition matrix are obtained by using the equipment on-line monitoring information and historical operation data,and then,its remaining effective life is predicted based on reliability principle. The results of numerical examples show that the proposed method can effectively predict the future operation state distribution and residual life of the protection device,and the prediction results can provide reference for the operation personnel. At present,this method has been applied in the on-line monitoring system of the intelligent substation secondary equipment,which can help to improve the stability of the intelligent substation.

关 键 词：继电保护装置 马尔科夫链 寿命预测 

分 类 号：TM774[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]