基于Copula函数的输水工程径流丰枯补偿特性研究  

Study on runoff compensation characteristics in rainy and dry season for the water conveyance project based on Copula function

作　　者：王妍[1] 王强[2] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省白石水库管理局,辽宁朝阳122000 [2]中水东北勘测设计研究有限责任公司,吉林长春130021

出　　处：《东北水利水电》2018年第7期37-39,共3页Water Resources & Hydropower of Northeast China

摘　　要：文中基于Copula函数构建了大伙房水库输水工程水源区和受水区径流量的二维联合分布模型,以PIII型分布为边缘分布,采用频率分析法对径流进行丰枯划分,对径流组合丰枯遭遇概率进行计算;并复核了工程现状供水水平和设计能力的调水保证率。结果表明:水源区和受水区丰枯组合同步的概率较高,发生调水不利的组合概率较大;通过对调水保证率计算可知,现状供水情况下调水保障率可达到99%,按设计调水能力计算调水保证率为95%,与工程原设计相符。Based on the Copula function, a two-dimensional joint distribution model of the runoff in the water source area and the water receiving area of the Dahuofang water conveyance project is built, then it is used to calculate the rainy and dry encountering probability for the runoff combination as the edge distribution with P-III type and the runoff division in rainy and dry season by using the frequency analysis method. The guarantee rate of water transfer under the current water supply level and design capacity level of the project is rechecked. The results show that the synchronous rainy and dry encounter probability is higher, and the probability of the adverse combination of water transfer is great. Through the calculation of guarantee rate of water transfer shows that the water transfer guarantee rates are 99% and 95% at the current water supply level and design capacity level, which is consistent with the original design of the project.

关 键 词：COPULA函数 大伙房水库输水工程 径流丰枯补偿 调水保证率 

分 类 号：TV67[水利工程—水利水电工程] TV121