“一带一路”背景下国内产业结构升级与对外直接投资关系研究——基于沿线62个国家OFDI跨境面板数据分析  

The Relationship Between Domestic Industrial Structure Upgrading and OFDI under the Initiative of “One Belt and One Road”——Study based on the cross-border panel data of 62 neighborhood countries

作　　者：龚静[1] 尹忠明 GONG Jing;YIN Zhong-ming(School of tourism,Economics and Management,Chengdu University,Chengdu 610106,China;School of Economics,Beifang University of Nationalities,Yinchuan 750021,China;School of International Business,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China)

机构地区：[1]成都大学旅游与经济管理学院,成都610106 [2]北方民族大学经济学院,银川750021 [3]西南财经大学国际商学院,成都611130

出　　处：《哈尔滨商业大学学报（社会科学版）》2018年第3期3-16,共14页Journal of Harbin University of Commerce:Social Science Edition

基　　金：四川省教育厅2018年人文社科基金"‘一带一路’战略下四川产业结构升级与对外直接投资联动关系研究"(18SB0153);北方民族大学2015年重点科研项目"‘一带一路’建设对西部民族地区开放水平与产业结构调整的影响与对策研究"(2015MYA01);成都大学2018年校青年基金项目"成平视角下成都服务贸易出口的促进路径研究"(2018XSB10)

摘　　要：基于我国2003—2015年对"一带一路"沿线62个国家直接投资的跨境面板数据,从产业结构升级的内部驱动视角切入,采用两步系统GMM的动态面板估计方法,实证研究了国内产业结构升级对我国"一带一路"沿线国家直接投资的影响机制与作用效果。研究结果显示,在研究期间我国的产业结构不断优化,产业结构合理化及产业结构高度化均有所提高;在此驱动下,我国对"一带一路"沿线的直接投资具有持续扩张的发展趋势。实证结果表明,国内的产业结构合理化与产业结构高度化均能显著促进我国对沿线国家的直接投资,且该促进作用大小会因东道国已有的前期投资规模而异。基于研究结论,政府在"一带一路"建设推进时应充分考虑国内产业结构升级与对外直接投资的良性互动关系,以更好实现进一步"走出去"的发展战略。Based on the cross-border panel data of 62＂One Belt and One Road＂neighborhood countries from 2003 to 2015,this paper empirically studies the impacts of domestic industrial structure upgrading on＂One Belt and One Road＂neighborhood OFDI by the method of two-step system GMM from the perspective of internal drive. The results show that the industrial structure in China is constantly upgrading and optimized. Specifically,the industrial structural rationalization and sophistication are both improved. Driven by these,China＇s OFDI in＂One Belt and One Road＂has a continuous expansion trend. The empirical results show that the industrial structural rationalization and sophistication both could significantly promote the expansion of China＇s OFDI. In addition,the promoting effect would vary from scale to scale by host country＇s previous investment. Based on the research conclusion,in order to realize the development strategy of further＂going out＂,it is necessary to take full consideration of the positive interaction between the domestic industrial structure upgrading and OFDI when formulating the＂One Belt and One Road＂policy.

关 键 词：“一带一路” 对外直接投资 产业结构升级 两步系统GMM估计 

分 类 号：F830.59[经济管理—金融学]