特高拱坝在线安全评判研究与应用  

Research and application of online safety evaluation for super high arch dam

作　　者：傅春江 张秀丽 沈海尧 黎中原 杨鸽 柳翔 冯永祥 FU Chun-jiang;ZHANG Xiu-li;SHEN Hai-yao;LI Zhong-yuan;YANG Ge;LIU Xiang;FENG Yong-xiang(Large Darn Safety Supervision Center,National Energy Administratio)

机构地区：[1]国家能源局大坝安全监察中心,浙江杭州311122 [2]雅砻江流域水电开发有限公司,四川成都610051

出　　处：《大坝与安全》2018年第2期1-6,共6页Dam & Safety

摘　　要：首先通过分析拱坝破坏案例,研究目标特高拱坝结构特点,对特高拱坝在线安全评判进行了研究,得到了安全评判的模型。其次,对信息融合方法进行梳理比较,认为采用规则推理法来评判大坝安全的适用性最强。最后,基于《水电站大坝运行安全评价导则》建立规则推理体系,开发了在线安全评判平台。研究成果在锦屏一级特高拱坝的应用案例表明,在线安全评判平台能实时、准确评判大坝安全状况。Through the case analysis of arch dam failure, the structural characteristics and the onlinesafety evaluation of super high arch dam are studied, and a safety evaluation model is developed. Bycomparative analysis of various information fusion methods, it is considered that the rule inference meth-od is the most applicable to judge dam safety. A rule inference system is established based on Guide for safety assessment of large dams for hydropower station in operation, and then the online security evalua-tion platform is developed. The research results have been applied to Jinping Ⅰ arch dam, and the re-sults show that the online safety evaluation platform can evaluate dam safety status in real time and accu-rately.

关 键 词：特高拱坝 在线安全评判 信息融合 规则推理 

分 类 号：TV698[水利工程—水利水电工程]