组合模型在桥梁墩台沉降预测中的应用  

Application of combined model in settlement prediction of bridge piers

作　　者：王建强 Wang Jianqiang(Gansu Institute of Surveying and Mapping Engineeing,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃省测绘工程院,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《矿山测量》2018年第2期47-51,共5页Mine Surveying

摘　　要：高速铁路线路修建过程中需要对线下构筑物进行沉降观测和沉降评估,由于高速铁路桥梁墩台沉降测量数据具有沉降量级较小,数值波动变化大的特性,所以单一预测模型不能很好的预测沉降量。文中结合Logistic模型、Gompertz模型和MMF模型的特点,应用加权几何平均法构造一个新的组合模型,使用该组合预测模型对桥梁墩台沉降进行预测,并对新模型进行精度评定。结合工程实例可得:组合预测模型拟合度高于前面三种模型,具有工程实用价值。It was necessary to evaluate the subsidence and settlement of the underline structures during the construction of high-speed railway lines. The single prediction model could not predict the settlement due to the small magnitude of the settlement and the large fluctuation of the data. In the paper,combining with the characteristics of Logistic model,Gompertz model and MMF model,a new combination model was constructed by the weighted geometric averaging method. It was used to predict the settlement of the bridge pier and the accuracy of the new model. Combining with the engineering examples,the fitting degree of combined prediction model was higher than the previous two models,and it had the practical value.

关 键 词：沉降预测 LOGISTIC模型 Gompertz模型 MMF模型 加权几何平均 

分 类 号：TD76[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]