我国货币中介指标有效性的实时对比——兼论社会融资规模的适用性  

Real-Time Comparison of the Effectiveness of Monetary Intermediaries in China—The Applicability of the Aggregate Financing to the Real Economy

作　　者：李玉蓉[1] 徐宁[2] LI Yurong;XU Ning(School of Economics,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China;Quantitative Research Center o{ Economics,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学经济学院,吉林长春130012 [2]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《西安交通大学学报（社会科学版）》2018年第4期23-30,共8页Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University：Social Sciences

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地项目(16JJD790014);吉林大学研究生创新基金资助项目(2017059)

摘　　要：本文采用时变参数向量自回归模型(TVP-VAR)比较分析货币供给量、社会融资规模和名义利率这三种货币政策工具对金融稳定、通货膨胀和经济增长的影响机制。结果发现,就通货膨胀和经济增长层面而言,名义利率是较为有效的政策工具,而社会融资规模在2011年以前无法对通货膨胀进行有效调整,但是在现阶段对通货膨胀和经济增长的调控效果已明显上升,说明社会融资规模的有效性正在逐步提高。就金融稳定层面而言,社会融资规模对金融稳定的调控效果要明显优于政策利率,并已逐渐成为政府和央行平抑金融波动的主要手段。然而需要指出,由于名义利率、货币供应量和社会融资规模对不同经济行为的调控效果各有差异,并不存在占优选择,因此中央银行在现阶段的政策调整过程中仍要高度重视统筹兼顾,采取混合型政策操作来平抑不同类型的经济冲击和经济波动。In this paper,we compare the three monetary policy tools,namely,the money supply,the aggregate financing to the real economy（AFRE）and the nominal interest rate,on the impact of financial stability,inflation and economic growth through the TVP-VAR model.The results show that in terms of inflation and economic growth,the nominal interest rate is an effective policy tool.While the AFRE did not adjust the inflation effectively before 2011,but at present stage,its regulation effects have increased significantly,which means the effectiveness of the AFRE is gradually increasing.In terms of financial stability,the effect of the AFRE to control financial stability is better than the policy rate,and AFRE has gradually become the main means of the government and the central bank to stabilize the financial market volatility.To point out,however,due to the regulation effect of the nominal interest rate,money supply and the AFRE to different economic behavior are different,there is no better choice.Therefore,the central bank still attaches great importance to the overall consideration in the process of the present stage,taking the mixed policy intermediaries to suppress the different types of economic shocks and economic fluctuations.

关 键 词：货币中介指标 社会融资规模 经济增长 通货膨胀 金融稳定 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]