基于贡献度分层的主动配电网供电能力评估  

Power Supply Capability Evaluation of Active Distribution Network on the Basis of Contribution Stratified Sampling

作　　者：任佳峰 穆启天 杨用春[1] 高亚静[1] REN Jiafeng;MU Qitian;YANG Yongchun;GAO Yajing(State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources（North China Electric Power University）,Baoding 071003,Hebei Province,China)

机构地区：[1]新能源电力系统国家重点实验室(华北电力大学),河北省保定市071003

出　　处：《电力建设》2018年第8期77-84,共8页Electric Power Construction

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51607068);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2018MS082)~~

摘　　要：主动配电系统(active distribution system,ADS)的供电能力(power supply capacity,PSC)受配电网络的拓扑结构、元件故障、负荷水平及分布式能源资源出力波动性等诸多不确定性因素的影响。为快速评估中长期配电网的供电能力,首先从影响中长期供电能力的因素入手,对分布式电源(distributed energy resource,DER)、负荷出力进行了不确定性建模,采用贡献度分层抽样算法进行抽样,得到具有代表性的样本,对于元件运行的不确定性,基于线路重要度进行网络不确定性建模;其次,定义了适用于中长期供电能力评估的指标;最后,采用改进的IEEE 14节点算例进行验证,通过与传统蒙特卡洛法的对比证明本文所提模型及算法的正确性和有效性。The power supply capacity（ PSC） of active distribution system（ ADS） is affected by varieties of uncertain factors such as the topology of distribution network,component faults,load level and the volatility of distributed energy resources（ DER）. In order to quickly evaluate the PSC of ADS,this paper first analyzes the factors those affect the medium and long term PSC,and uncertainty modeling of DER and load output is carried out. The contribution stratified sampling algorithm is used to sample and obtain representative samples. For uncertainty of component operation,network uncertainty modeling is based on line importance. Furthermore,a series of evaluation indexes are defined for medium and long term PSC. Finally,an improved IEEE 14-node distribution network is used to verify the model and algorithm proposed in this paper by comparison with traditional Monte Carlo method.

关 键 词：主动配电系统(ADS) 分布式电源(DER) 供电能力(PSC)评估 贡献度分层抽样 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]