近十年中国石油勘探开发回顾与展望  

Review and prospect of petroleum exploration and development in China over the past decade

作　　者：王陆新[1] 潘继平[1] 娄钰[1] WANG Luxin;PAN Jiping;LOU Yu(Strategic Research Center of Oil ＆ Gas Resources,ML)

机构地区：[1]国土资源部油气资源战略研究中心

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2018年第7期65-71,共7页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：中国的石油勘探开发经历了近10年快速发展,相继发现了14个亿吨级以上的大型油田,探明储量持续高位增长,产量增长至2.15亿吨的历史最高位。近年来,在持续低油价和经济新常态的新形势下,石油勘探开发投资下降,产量减少,行业面临资源品位下降、勘探对象复杂、关键技术和体制机制制约等日益严峻的挑战。随着国际石油市场再平衡和国内经济稳中向好,预计2020年前,中国石油探明地质储量稳定高位增长,年均新增10亿~12亿吨;在国际油价保持50美元/桶以上的条件下,中国的石油年产量预计可达1.9亿~2.0亿吨。China＇s oil exploration and development experienced sustained rapid growth in the last 10 years. 14 Largescale oilfields have been discovered one after another. Proved reserves have continued to grow at a high level, and production grew to a historical high of 215 million tons. In recent years, under the new situation of continuously low oil price and new normal of economy, investment in oil exploration and development has decreased and output has decreased. The industry is faced with increasingly severe challenges such as declining resource grade, complex exploration objects, key technologies and institutional constraints. With the rebalancing of the international oil market and the steady improvement of the domestic economy, it is expected that by 2020, China＇s petroleum proved reserves will grow steadily, with average annual increase of 1.0~1.2 billion tons. China＇s oil production is expected to be 190~200 million tons if international oil prices keeps above $50 per barrel.

关 键 词：石油资源 勘探开发 储量 产量 机遇挑战 预测 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济]