多元分析算法在世界杯球队综合实力中的预测  

Prediction of Comprehensive Strength of World Cup Team by Multivariate Analysis Algorithm

作　　者：赖琮霖 李力卡[1] 张慧嫦[1] LAI Cong-lin;LI Li-ka;ZHANG Hui-chang(Guangdong Research Institute of China Telecom Co.Ltd.,Guangzhou 510630,China)

机构地区：[1]中国电信股份有限公司广东研究院,广东广州510630

出　　处：《计算机与现代化》2018年第8期92-96,101,共6页Computer and Modernization

摘　　要：世界杯作为一项国际盛事日益受到广大群众的关注,其中球队实力与成绩的估测始终是一项热门话题。足球技战术表现分析表明,球队的比赛结果与其赛场上的统计指标息息相关,这使得客观科学地评价球队综合实力变得可行。本文利用聚类分析与主成分分析法评估世界杯球队综合实力。以2010年世界杯的统计指标与比赛结果为基础建立模型,发掘影响球队实力较大的统计指标,并利用2014年巴西世界杯的统计指标与结果进行模型验证。结果表明,场均拦截、场均射门数、控球数和长传成功率是最能够反映球队实力的因素,当届小组赛的统计指标在一定程度上能够预测出比赛的晋级结果。World Cup as an international event is increasingly attracting the attention of the public,the team strength and performance evaluation are always a hot topic. Football tactics performance analysis shows that the match results are closely related to the teams＇ statistical indicators,which make the objective and scientific evaluation of the team comprehensive strength become feasible. In this research,clustering analysis and Principal Component Analysis（PCA） methods are used to evaluate the comprehensive strength of the World Cup teams. On the basis of the statistical indicators and the results of 2010 World Cup,a model is built to find out which are the most influential statistical indicators. In addition,the statistical indicators and the results of 2014 World Cup in Brazil are used to verify the model. The experimental results show that the average interception,average shooting number,ball possession number and long success rate are the most influential statistical indicators to reflect the team strength. To a certain extent,the statistical indicators of the group match can predict the promotion results.

关 键 词：世界杯 综合排名 聚类分析 主成分分析 足球技战术表现分析 

分 类 号：G843[文化科学—体育训练]