主成分分析法在国内旅游收入影响因素评估中的应用  

The Application of Principal Component Analysis Method in the Evaluation of the Impact Factors of Domestic Tourism Income

作　　者：潘婧 张慧敏[1] WANG Yu-hong1, WANG Li-hong2(1. Datong Disease Prevention and Control Center, Datong Shanxi, 037009;2. the Fifth People＇s Hospital of Datong, Datong Shanxi, 03700)

机构地区：[1]天津科技大学经济与管理学院,天津300222

出　　处：《山西大同大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第4期31-33,57,共4页Journal of Shanxi Datong University(Natural Science Edition)

摘　　要：我国国内旅游收入的变化是由众多因素共同作用的,为了消除各因素间的多重共线性,采用主成分分析法提取几个主成分,构建线性回归模型。分析发现经济发展水平、城乡居民收入,以及消费物价是影响旅游收入的主要原因,在此基础上建立的回归模型也具有较好的预测结果。研究建议根据当前旅游业新动向,着力建设与交通相关的基础设施,同时促进旅游需求和旅游资源供应在价格上的双向平衡。There are many factors that affect China＇s domestic tourism revenue, and there is a strong correlation between these factors. In this paper, the main component analysis method is used to eliminate the multicollinearity among the influencing factors, and linear regression model is built. The analysis shows that the level of economic development, income of urban and rural residents, and consumer prices are the main factors affecting tourism income, and the regression model established thereby has better prediction results.It is suggested that according to the new trend of tourism industry, we should focus on the construction of transportation related infrastructure and promote the two-way balance of tourism demand and tourism resource supply in price.

关 键 词：国内旅游收入 主成分分析 消费物价指数 

分 类 号：O212.4[理学—概率论与数理统计]