影响南方农业干旱灾损率的气候要素关键期特征  

The affected characteristic of key period's climate factor on the agricultural disaster loss caused by drought in the south China

作　　者：张强[1,2] 韩兰英[3] 王胜[1] 王兴[3] 林婧婧[3] Qiang Zhang;Lanying Han;Sheng Wang;Xing Wang;Jingjing Lin(Institute of Arid Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Redueing Disaster of China Meteorological Administration,Lanzhou 730020,China;Gansu Meteorology Bureau,Lanzhou 730020,China;Northwest Regional Climate Center,Lanzhou 730020,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,兰州730020 [2]甘肃省气象局,兰州730020 [3]西北区域气候中心,兰州730020

出　　处：《科学通报》2018年第23期2378-2392,共15页Chinese Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(2013CB430206);国家自然科学基金重点项目(41630426)资助

摘　　要：我国南方地区是全国粮食主要产区,在全球气候变化背景下近年来该区域干旱灾害不断加剧,农业旱灾损失十分突出,异常特征也比较明显.然而,对于我国南方农业旱灾损失的变化特征及其受干旱致灾因素的影响机理至今并不十分清楚,这严重影响了对南方农业旱灾规律的深入认识及其影响程度的客观评估.鉴于此,利用我国南方农业干旱灾情实况、农作物种植面积、气象干旱监测指数和常规气象要素等相关资料,系统分析了中国南方地区近50年来农业旱灾综合损失率变化特征及其与气候致灾因子的关系.分析发现:南方地区近50年来农业旱灾综合损失率明显增加,西南比华南和东南增加更为明显.而且,由于农作物各个生长阶段对气候要素的依赖程度不同及气候要素的非均匀季节分布特征,农业旱灾损失率主要受关键期的气象干旱、降水和温度等气候要素变化的影响,而其他时段气候要素变化对农业旱灾损失率影响并不明显.因此,南方地区农业旱灾损失率与关键期气候要素的拟合关系要明显好于与全年气候要素的关系,并且与关键期气候要素的多因子拟合关系与单因子拟合关系相比更具有明显的优势.同时,对这种多因子关系建立的农业旱灾损失率评估模型进行交叉检验的相关性、误差水平、信度均比较理想,表明该模型对估算南方地区农业旱灾损失率具有较好的效果.该文研究结果对于发展我国南方农业干旱灾损评估方法具有重要科学参考意义.Southern China is the nation＇s major grain-producing areas. In recent years, under the background of global climate change, regional drought disasters have been increased, and caused serious agricultural drought loss and obvious anomaly characteristics. However,the variation characteristics of agricultural drought loss and drought hazard mechanism are still unclear in south China, which seriously affects the in-depth understanding of southern agriculture drought and its assessments. Therefore, based on agricultural drought disaster conditions, crop acreage, meteorological drought monitoring index and conventional meteorological factors and other related data, systematical and comprehensive agricultural drought loss rate variation and its relationship with climateformative factors have been analyzed in recent 50 years. Agricultural drought comprehensive loss rate is used as an agricultural drought disaster or risk characteristics loss severity index. Agricultural drought comprehensive loss rate is an integrated index that can reflect severity of loss caused by agricultural drought disaster and established by drought-affected crop planting area at different levels and planting area. The results showed that comprehensive agricultural drought loss rate increased obviously and with a rate of about 2.5%, the relative increased rate reached to as high as 80%. Agricultural drought disasters loss has been increased seriously and doughty disasters risk also has been increased more higher than before, southwest is more apparently than south and southeast.With respect to spatial distribution, probability of climate tendency rate for comprehensive loss rate in south China ranges from 0.1%/10 a to 1.8%/10 a. In addition, increase in climate tendency rate in the southwest is more obvious than that in the south and southeast. And, as a result of crop growth stages on the climate elements in dependence on different season and climate factors of non-uniform distribution characteristics, agricultural drought loss rate is mainly a

关 键 词：农业旱灾 综合灾损率 气候致灾因子 关键影响期 因子拟合关系 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]