贸易协定对中国进出口价格波动影响的实证分析  

An Empirical Study on Impact of Trade Agreements on China's Import and Export Price Fluctuation

作　　者：魏浩[1] 张昊 WEI Hao;ZHANG Hao

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2018年第8期1-10,共10页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"中国进口增长及其对国内经济发展促进作用研究"(71473020)

摘　　要：本文使用中国和188个贸易伙伴的数据,实证分析了中国及其贸易伙伴加入WTO对中国货物进出口价格波动的影响。研究结果表明:从中国进口的角度来看,不论中国是否加入WTO,只要中国的贸易伙伴加入了WTO,中国从贸易伙伴进口商品的价格波动就会降低,与中国加入WTO之前相比,在中国加入WTO之后,中国的贸易伙伴如果加入了WTO,则中国从贸易伙伴进口的价格波动下降幅度更大;从中国出口的角度来看,中国的贸易伙伴加入WTO,也会显著降低中国向贸易伙伴出口的价格波动;在不同时期,中国的贸易伙伴加入WTO,对中国进口商品价格波动的抑制作用都大于对中国出口商品价格波动的抑制作用。因此,中国应该加快与贸易伙伴签订贸易协定,稳定中国的进出口价格,避免进出口价格波动过大对国内经济的冲击。Using the data from China and 188 trade partner countries, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of China＇s and it＇s trading partner countries＇ accessions to the WTO on the price fluctuations of China＇s imports and exports of commodities. From the perspective of China＇s imports, whether or not China joins the WTO, as long as China＇s trading partner country joins the WTO, the price fluctuations of China＇s imports from trading partners will be reduced; compared with before China joined the WTO, if China＇s trading partner countries join the WTO after China＇s accession to the WTO, the price fluctuations of imports from trading partner countries will decline more. From the perspective of China＇s exports, China＇s trading partner countries＇ accession to the WTO will also significantly reduce the price fluctuations of China＇s exports to trading partners. In different periods, China＇s trade partner countries＇ accessions to the WTO have more restraining effect on the price fluctuation of China＇s imported goods than on the price fluctuation of China＇s export commodities. Therefore, China should speed up the signing of trade agreements with trading partner countries, which is conducive to stabilizing China＇s import and export prices and avoiding the impact of excessive fluctuations in import and export prices on the domestic economy.

关 键 词：进口价格 出口价格 价格波动 贸易协定 WTO 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易] F752.6[经济管理—产业经济]