克拉玛依市冬季飞机人工增雪作业效果统计分析  

Statistical analysis of effect of aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement in winter at Karamay

作　　者：李斌[1] 郑博华 兰文杰 杨琳 LI Bin;ZHENG Bo-hual;LAN Wen-jie;YANG Lin(Weather Modification Office of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumqi 830002,Xinjiang,China;Kelamayi Meteorological Bureau in Xinjiang,Karamay 834000,Xinjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆维吾尔自治区人工影响天气办公室,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [2]克拉玛依市气象局,新疆克拉玛依834000

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2018年第4期686-692,共7页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：克拉玛依市科技计划项目(SK2016-45)

摘　　要：利用克拉玛依区气象站1957—2016年历年12月降水量观测资料,运用序列检验、不成对秩和检验以及t-检验法等统计学方法,对开展冬季飞机人工增雪作业前历史期31 a和作业期29 a的年12月降水量作为统计变量,进行系统性差异分析。结果表明:开展冬季飞机人工增雪作业后克拉玛依市冬季12月降水量明显增加,降水量平均值增加了2 mm。运用非参数性不成对秩和检验显著性水平达到0.025,参数性t-检验显著性水平也接近0.025。选取统计显著性水平0.1置信区间,计算得,冬季开展飞机人工增雪作业后,克拉玛依市平均年12月降水量绝对增加值为1.15 mm,相对增加率为24.5%。从而得出:开展冬季飞机人工增雪作业后,克拉玛依市冬季降水量有了明显增加。In order to objectively evaluate the effect of the aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement in winter in Karamay, Xinjiang, China, it is need to analyze the systematic significance of snowfall enhancement. In this paper, u- tilizing the sequence test, unpaired rank sum test and t-test of statistical methods, the systematic differences of annu- al precipitation in December of the former historical period 31 a and the latter period 29 a of the carrying out the aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement are analyzed in Karamay, with annual precipitation data of Karamay Weather Station in December from 1957--2016, as a beginning to carry out the aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement in 1988. The results show that the precipitation in December in Karamay was significantly increased in December after the operation of the aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement, regardless of the maximum, minimum and average val- ue. It added 2.3 mm, 1.1 mm and 2.02 mm respectively. In particular, the minimum rainfall period is 12 times that of the historical period. This would play a positive role in alleviating the shortage of water resources. The inspec- tion significance level of non-parameter unpaired rank sum test is 0. 025, and the inspection significance level of parametric t-test is also close to 0. 025. According to the calculation, the absolute increase of the precipitation in Karamay in December is 1.15 mm,and the relative enhancive rate is 24.5% after carrying out the aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement in winter in Karamay when the statistical significant level t~ = 0. 1 is chosen. Therefore, through carrying out the aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement in winter, it is significant for the precipitation en- hancement in Karamay, it has a certain effect on the local tense production and domestic water consumption in arid areas. Remarkable social and economic benefits. This paper makes a reasonable utility of statistical methods to ana- lyze the effects of aircraft artificial snowfall enhancement in the winter in

关 键 词：飞机人工增雪 作业效果 统计 分析 

分 类 号：P481[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]