外商直接投资、母国经济自由度与中国农产品进口——基于OECD国家的实证  

Foreign Direct Investment,Economic Freedom and China’s Agricultural Imports:Evidence from the OECD countries

作　　者：潘伟康 傅昌銮 PAN Weikang;FU Changluan

机构地区：[1]浙江省人民政府研究室,杭州310025 [2]杭州师范大学经济与管理学院,杭州311121

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2018年第7期107-118,共12页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

摘　　要：随着发达国家资本不断渗透中国农业,考察外商直接投资（FDI）是否会显著提高中国对母国农产品进口依赖以及母国经济自由度的可能影响,对于保障中国粮食安全具有重要现实意义。本文参照Armstrong（2007）的研究思路,在基准贸易引力模型中引入随机前沿方法（SFA）,构建了包含FDI和经济自由度动态变量的随机前沿引力模型。基准引力模型的GLS估计和工具变量（IV）估计显示：中国吸收OECD国家FDI对中国农产品进口规模产生正向影响,且存在1-2期的时滞;OECD国家经济自由度对中国农产品进口规模存在负向影响,且存在1期时滞。随机前沿引力模型一步法估计验证了以上结论,并发现FDI和经济自由度的影响机制通过贸易非效率的路径实现,而贸易非效率随时间递减。研究结论表明,中国从OECD国家农产品进口依赖有上升的动能和趋势,应当警惕发达国家FDI对国内农产品市场的布局,加快开发并吸收替代性海外农业资源,从而缓解粮食需求增长与资源紧缺的长期矛盾。As the agriculture of China continues to experience the penetration of monopoly capital from developed countries,whether the foreign direct investment（ FDI） will significantly enhance China＇s food external dependence on home countries becomes an important issue for food security in China. In this paper,following Armstrong（ 2007） we incorporate stochastic frontier approach（ SFA） to the benchmark trade gravity model and then build a stochastic frontier gravity model with dynamic variables of FDI and national economic freedom. GLS estimates and IV estimates of benchmark gravity model show that the absorption of FDI from OECD countries positively influence the agricultural imports of China with a delay of 1 to 2 periods. Meanwhile,economic freedom of OECD countries produce negative impact on China＇s agricultural import scale with a delay of 1 period. The further one-step estimate of stochastic frontier gravity model verifies the above conclusions. The effect of FDI and economic freedom work through the decreasing trade efficiency. The results indicate that China＇s agricultural imports from OECD countries are showing a rising trend. China should be alert to the layout of the FDI from developed countries in domestic agricultural markets and speed up the development and absorb the overseas agricultural resources to alleviate of the long-term contradiction of food demand growth and the shortage of resource.

关 键 词：FDI 经济自由度 农产品进口 SFA 引力模型 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F752.61F832.6