突发冲击对中国经济波动的动态影响——基于DSGE模型的分析  

Dynamic Impacts of Unexpected Shocks on China's Economic Fluctuation:An Analysis Based on a DSGE Model

作　　者：方劲松[1] 徐晓伟[2] 李虹含[3] FANG Jin-song;XU Xiao-wei;LI Hong-han(a.School of Finance;b.Collaborative Innvoation Center of Industrial Upgrade and Regional Rinance of Hubei,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China;2.Nanjing Branch of Huaxia Bank,Nanjing 210000,China)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学金融学院,湖北武汉430073 [2]华夏银行南京分行,江苏南京210000 [3]中南财经政法大学产业升级与区域金融湖南省协同创新中心,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《经济问题》2018年第8期40-46,共7页On Economic Problems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71273282);国家自然科学基金项目"突发公共事件对中国宏观经济的影响及其优化管理研究"(70773119);国家社会科学基金青年项目(12CJY113);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划"非常规金融突发事件的动态演变规律研究"(NCET-10-0828);北京市金融学会2016年度科研项目的阶段性成果

摘　　要：通过建立DSGE模型,利用中国数据对模型的参数进行贝叶斯估计,可以在一般均衡的框架内研究不同类型的突发冲击对中国经济波动的动态影响。根据突发冲击对中国经济波动的动态影响分析结果,发现中国经济波动的主要短期驱动因素是货币冲击、政府购买冲击和消费偏好冲击,主要长期驱动因素则是技术冲击、投资冲击和价格加成冲击;各种突发冲击对宏观经济波动的影响各有侧重,产出波动主要由技术冲击和投资冲击造成,对通货膨胀影响比较大的则是技术冲击和货币冲击。The paper establish a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium（ DSGE） model,using Bayesian estimation methods get the model ＇s parameters,which can be used to analyze the dynamic impacts of unexpected shocks on china ＇s economic fluctuation. According to the analysis results of dynamic effects of the unexpected shocks on China＇s economic fluctuations,we found that the main short-term economic fluctuation drives in China are monetary shock,government purchases shock and the consumption preferences shock. The main long-term economic fluctuation drives in China are technology shock,investment adjustment shock and the price markup shock.Different unexpected shocks have different impact of on China＇s macroeconomic fluctuations,the output fluctuation is mainly caused by technology shock and investment shock,and inflation is mainly caused by technology shock and monetary shock.

关 键 词：突发冲击 经济波动 动态影响 

分 类 号：F037.1[经济管理—政治经济学]