城市燃气供应突发事件情景构建方法研究  

Research on Scenario Construction Method of Urban Gas Supply Emergency

作　　者：翟振岗[1,2] 刘克会 朱伟[2,3] ZHAI Zhengang;LIUKehui;ZHUWei(Beijing Institute of New Technolog Applications,Beijing 100094,China.)

机构地区：[1]北京市新技术应用研究所,北京100094 [2]燃气供热及地下管网运行安全北京市重点实验室,北京100035 [3]北京城市系统工程研究中心,北京100035

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》2018年第4期364-369,共6页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划基金项目(2017YFC0805006);北京市科学技术研究院创新团队基金项目(IG201607N)

摘　　要：城市燃气系统具有空间分布广、系统耦合性强等特点,一旦出现燃气供应短缺,将会显著影响城市生产生活。针对城市燃气供应突发事件演化复杂性,从事件分类、影响层次、应急阶段3个维度提出情景构建框架。将燃气、热力、电力系统分别定义为网络,基于关键基础设施建模框架,提出不同网络之间的相互作用关系,包括节点输入-输出作用和网络对应区域的替代型作用,建立燃气、热力、电力系统关联模型,分析了突发事件在燃气、热力和电力系统之间的演化过程。以中国北方某城市为例,分析了不同燃气供应缺口下热力、电力的供应情况。依据燃气供应突发事件情景提出先期处置、响应升级、全面响应、善后恢复4个应急阶段,并给出各阶段应急任务。Urban gas systemhas the characteristics of wide spatial distribution and strong system coupling. Once the gas sup-ply shortage occurs, it will have a significant impact on urban production and life. According to the complexity of urban gas sup-ply emergencies, the scenario construction framework was put forward from the three dimensions of event classification, influencelevel and emergency stage. The gas, heat - supply and power systems are defined as networks. Based on the critical infrastruc-ture modeling framework, the method of describing the relationship between different networks which including the input -outputfunction between network nodes and the alternative role of the network corresponding reel of gas, heat-supply and power systems is established. The evolution process of emergencies insystems is analyzed. Acity in northern China is taken as an example to analyze the heat and power supply under different gas supply gaps. According to the emergency scenario of gas supply, four emergency sresponse upgrading,comprehensive response and recovery and emergency tasks at various stagesare given.

关 键 词：情景构建 多层次模型 关联分析 燃气供应 突发事件 

分 类 号：B913[哲学宗教—宗教学]