贵州省小油桐气候适宜性对未来气候变化的响应  

Influence of Future Climate Change on Climatic Suitability of Jatropha curcas in Guizhou Province

作　　者：白玉梅 韩会庆 张娇艳[2] 张新鼎 BAI Yumei;HAN Huiqing;ZHANG Jiaoyan;ZHANG Xinding(College of Architecture and Urban Planning,Guizhou Institute of Technology,Guiyang 550003;Guizhou Climate Center,Guiyang 550002)

机构地区：[1]贵州理工学院建筑与城市规划学院,贵州贵阳550003 [2]贵州省气候中心,贵州贵阳550002

出　　处：《山东林业科技》2018年第4期21-25,共5页Journal of Shandong Forestry Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41563007);贵州省教育厅高等学校人文社会科学研究项目(2017qn25)

摘　　要：气候变化是影响小油桐种植适宜性的重要因素。利用1986-2005年气象观测资料和2016-2100年气候预估资料,分析了贵州省小油桐气候适宜性对未来气候变化的响应。结果表明:未来RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下2016-2035年贵州省小油桐气候适宜性以不适宜区为主,2046-2065年和2081-2100年以适宜区和次适宜区为主。与1986-2005年相比,未来气候变化各情景下适宜区和次适宜区增加,不适宜区减少。适宜区由南部向北部和东南部扩张,次适宜区由南部向东北部和西南部扩张。各气候因子呈增加趋势是导致未来贵州省小油桐气候适宜性提高的重要因素。Climate change is the important factors that affecting the Jatropha curcas planting suitability. The paper analyzed the impact of future climate change on climate suitability of Jatropha curcas based on meteorological observation data from 1986 to 2005 and climate forecast data from 2016 to 2100. The results showed that unsuitability area was the dominant？types from 2016 to 2035 while suitability and moderate suitability areas were high from 2046 to 2065 and from 2081 to 2100 under RCP2.6〉,RGP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Compared to 1986-2005, suitability and moderate suitability areas increased while unsuitability area decreased. Suitability areas enlarged from south part to north and southeast parts. Moderate suitability enlarged from south part to northeast and southwest parts. Increasing of climate factors was important factor resulting in climate suitability increasing of Jatropha curcas in Guizhou province.

关 键 词：气候变化 小油桐 空间格局 贵州省 

分 类 号：P504[天文地球—地质学]