海外油气勘探开发项目组合优化研究——基于交互效应视角  

Study on Optimization of Overseas Oil and Gas Project Portfolio Based on Interactive Effect

作　　者：王晓宇[1] 罗东坤[1] 计智峰 刘键烨 Wang Xiaoyu;Luo Dongkun;Ji Zhifeng;Liu Jianye(School of Business Administration,China University of Petroleum（Beijing）,Beijing,102249,China;Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development,PetroChina,Beijing,100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)工商管理学院,北京102249 [2]中国石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083

出　　处：《天然气与石油》2018年第4期124-132,共9页Natural Gas and Oil

基　　金：国家重大科技专项"海外重点探区目标评价与未来领域选区选带研究"(2016 ZX 05029-005);中国石油天然气集团公司专项"海外油气勘探资产评价与结构优化"(2016 D-4304)

摘　　要：海外油气勘探开发项目受投资环境、财税条款和技术进步影响,存在广泛的交互效应,对项目的经济评价和组合优化产生了重要影响。分析了海外油气勘探开发项目存在的资源交互效应、收益交互效应和技术交互效应,建立了基于交互效应的海外油气勘探开发项目组合收益最大和风险最小模型;改进多元宇宙优化算法(Multi-Verse Optimizer,MVO),将其应用到0-1非线性规划模型问题求解中,对油气项目进行组合优化。结果表明,项目之间存在的交互效应会对组合选择产生影响,存在正交互效应的项目被选中的概率增加。考虑交互效应的投资组合在收益和风险方面都优于不考虑交互效应的投资组合,证明交互效应对海外油气勘探开发项目投资组合优化的重要性,增加了投资决策的科学性。Overseas oil and gas projects are influenced by investment environment,fiscal terms and technological progress. They have extensive interaction effects,and have important impact on economic evaluation and portfolio optimization of projects. Based on the three types of interaction effects,this paper analyzes the resources interaction effect,benefit interaction effect and the technical interaction effect of overseas oil and gas projects,and establishes the maximum benefit or minimum risk model of offshore oil and gas project portfolio based on interaction effect. The multi-verse algorithm is improved and applied to the solution of 0-1 nonlinear programming problem to optimize the oil and gas project portfolio. The results show that the interaction effects between projects will have an impact on portfolio selection,and the probability of the selection of projects with positive interaction effects will increase. The investment portfolio considering the interaction effect is better than the portfolio which does not consider the interaction effect in terms of profit and risk. It proves the importance of the interaction effect on the optimization of the overseas oil and gas exploration and development projects,and increases the scientificity of the investment decision.

关 键 词：海外油气项目 组合优化 交互效应 多元宇宙优化算法 

分 类 号：P744.4[天文地球—海洋科学] TE323[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]