基于专利数据的技术投资预测——以快递物流领域为例  

To Assess a Technology Investment based on Patent Data——From an Empirical Analysis on Express Logistics

作　　者：孔德婧 王坤 KONG De-jing1,2, WANG Kun2,3(1. School of Modern Post, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876, China; 2. Logistics Information Sharing Technology and Application of National Engineering Laboratory, Shanghai 201705, China; 3. Yuantong Express Co., Ltd. Shanghai 201705, Chin)

机构地区：[1]北京邮电大学现代邮政学院,北京100876 [2]物流信息互通共享技术及应用国家工程实验室,上海201705 [3]圆通速递股份有限公司,上海201705

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2018年第8期14-20,共7页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

摘　　要：文章运用了一种新的基于专利数据的技术预测方法以保证企业的技术投资能够成功。该技术预测方法主要包含四个维度,即技术生命周期、扩散速度、专利的权威性以及扩张潜力。其中,专利的权威性和扩张潜力是表征技术范畴的指标。最后,文章使用了一种数据融合算法将不同维度的数据分析结果进行结合,以完成综合评估。文章还使用实证分析的方法验证了这种预测方法的有效性和潜力。实证中,本研究利用汤森路透的全球专利库评估了快递物流领域的三项技术——运输规划技术、远程信息处理技术和无线射频识别技术。实证分析表明,现阶段在快递物流领域内运输规划技术的投资优先级要高于远程信息处理技术和无线射频识别技术。In this research, a new technology prediction method, based on patent data, is used to assess the success of technology investment. This method contains four dimensions, technology life cycle, diffusion speed, patent authority and expansion potential. Among them, patent authority and expansion potential are the indicators to show the technology scope. Finally, a data fusion algorithm is used in the research to combine the analysis results from different dimensions to complete the comprehensive evaluation. The effectiveness and potential of the method are verified through empirical analysis. In the empirical analysis, three technologies in the field of express logistics, transportation planning technology, telematics technology, and radio frequency identification technology, are evaluated through the global patent database of Thomson Innovation（TI）. The empirical analysis shows that the priority of transportation planning technology in the express logistics field is higher than telematics technology and radio frequency identification technology at the present stage.

关 键 词：技术预测 专利分析 技术生命周期 技术扩散 快递物流 

分 类 号：F124.3[经济管理—世界经济]