基于案例推理的城镇建设用地需求预测——以重庆市为例  

Prediction of urban construction land demand based on case-based reasoning:a case study of Chongqing City

作　　者：郑伟伟 柯新利 

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《城市问题》2018年第8期79-86,共8页Urban Problems

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(13CGL092)

摘　　要：城镇建设用地需求预测是科学确定城市规模、划定城市发展边界的基础。传统城镇建设用地需求预测大多遵循趋势外推思路,忽略了城市发展阶段性对建设用地的需求差异。运用案例推理研究方法,采用我国31个省、市、自治区的建设用地及经济社会、资源禀赋因素构建案例库,预测了重庆市的城镇建设用地需求量。结果显示:运用案例推理方法预测重庆市建设用地,其结果的平均相对误差为3.08%,平均绝对误差和误差均方根分别为25.77和30.28;近期2020年和远期2030年重庆市城镇建设用地需求量分别为1653.03平方公里和2334.24平方公里。The prediction for built - up area demand is the basis of scientific determination of urban scale and delimita- tion of urban development boundary. The traditional built - up land predictions mostly follow the trend extrapolation method, ig- noring the urban development stage to the construction land de- mand difference. Based on CBR, this essay uses 31 provinces of China and its economic, social and resource endowment factors to construct a case base to forecast the demand of urban con- struction land in Chongqing. The results show that： Firstly, the average relative error of the CBR predicting construction land is 3. 08%, and the average absolute error and the error mean square root are 25.77 and 30.28 respectively; secondly, the de- mand area of urban construction land in Chongqing in the near 2020 and forward 2030 is 1653.03 km2 and 2334.24 km2 re- spectively.

关 键 词：城镇建设用地 需求预测 案例推理 重庆市 

分 类 号：F299.277.19[经济管理—国民经济]