重点行业碳减排是否会导致行业间的碳泄漏  

Will the Carbon Emission Reduction of Key Industries Lead to Carbon Leakage in Industries

作　　者：张同斌[1] Zhang Tongbin

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学经济学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2018年第8期69-81,共13页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"新常态下我国宏观经济监测和预测研究"(15ZDA011);辽宁省高等学校创新人才支持计划"国际碳减排中的环境与经济关联效应研究"(WR2016014)的资助

摘　　要：本文基于行业间投入产出关联的视角,分析了高耗能工业和能源行业等重点行业碳减排是否会导致行业间碳泄漏的问题。结果显示,重点行业减排并未引致行业间的碳泄漏效应,而是实现了整体减排的"扩散效应",各行业的碳排放量均呈现出下降特征,价格体系和投入产出结构两个方面的变动佐证了这一现象。一方面,重点行业减排导致高耗能工业、能源行业生产成本上升以及低耗能工业、建筑业中投入要素成本增加和产品价格上升,因而高耗能工业品、能源产品消耗增加的"回弹效应"没有出现;另一方面,在重点行业碳减排的影响下,各行业有效控制和降低了中间投入中高耗能产品和能源产品的使用,存在着紧密产业关联的能源行业、高耗能工业、低耗能工业、建筑业中间投入下降的幅度相对较大,对碳减排的贡献程度较高。From the perspective of input and output relationship among industries,it analyzes whether carbon emission reduction of the key industries,such as the high energy-consuming industry and energy industry,will lead to carbon leakage. The results show that the carbon emission reduction of key industries do not result in carbon leakage among the industries,but achieve the overall reduction of the＂diffusion effect＂. In other words,carbon emissions in all industries present declining characteristics. Two aspects of the price system change and the input-output structure variation support this phenomenon. On one hand,emission reduction in key industries lead to the rising of production costs in high energy-consuming industry and energy industry,as well as the increase of factor costs and product prices in low energy-consuming industry and construction industry. Thus,the ＂rebound effect＂of consumption increasing in high energy-consuming industrial products and energy products has not appeared. On the other hand,under the influences of key industries carbon emission reduction,the inputs of high energy-consuming products and energy products can be effectively controlled and reduced in all industries. Among them,the decreasing magnitudes of intermediate inputs in energy industry,high energy-consuming industry,low energy-consuming industry and construction industry,which are closely related with each other,are relatively large. These industries make a considerably contributionto the carbon emission reduction.

关 键 词：高耗能工业 碳交易 碳泄漏 投入产出 动态一般均衡模型 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]