民用机场停机坪安全三维风险预警模型研究  

3-D safety risk warning system model for the apron operation in the civil airports

作　　者：潘丹[1,2] 罗帆[1] PAN Dan;LUO Fan(School of Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China;School of Management,Wuhan University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430081,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学管理学院,武汉430070 [2]武汉科技大学管理学院,武汉430081

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2018年第4期1258-1265,共8页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71271163)

摘　　要：鉴于机场风险管控能力差异对风险的影响,对停机坪安全三维风险预警模型进行了研究。采用扎根理论构建35个停机坪安全风险预警指标,在传统二维风险矩阵的基础上,考虑风险受体脆弱性,建立停机坪安全三维风险预警模型,采用最优分割法确定预警警级和阈值,采用层次分析法-模糊综合评价法计算警度,并发出预警信号。结果表明：35个风险预警指标中,18个指标警情处于Ⅱ级,发出黄色轻警信号;17个指标警情处于Ⅲ级,发出橙色中警信号;而综合风险警情为Ⅱ级,发出黄色轻警信号。In view of the different influences of the airport risk control capability,this paper is aimed at working out a 3-D safety risk warning model of apron in the civil airport. For this purpose,we have first of all adopted the ground-controlling theory to formulate a 35 apron safety risk warning indicator system which can be divided into 4 dimensions,that is,human factors,machinery and equipment factors,the environment factors,management factors,which can ensure the comprehensiveness and rationality of the indicator system. Secondly,we have summarized the vulnerabilities of the risk receptors and established a 3-D safety risk warning model of apron on the basis of the traditional 2-D risk matrix,while full responsibility for the airport safety should be involved in the severity of the risk accidents. Seeing this,we prefer to adopt the Optimal Segmentation method to determine the warning level and threshold,the Analytic Hierarchy Process and the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method for calculating the warning degrees. Of course,the final warning issue has to be delivered according to the warning level and threshold. Therefore,the results of our examination show that the influence degree of the secondary indicators on the overall target ranges as follows： the management factors,the human factors,the mechanical and equipment factors,and,then,the environmental factors. As for the third level indicators,among which the pilot operation error rate,the operating personnel violation rate,the safety supervisory and the management experience and the capability of the apron managers should rank top in the overall impact. Besides,the 18 safety risk indicators should be relegated in the second risk level and in the state of yellow warning,whereas the 17 risk indicators are to be put into the 3-rd risk level and in the status of the orange warning（ which belong to the high risk levels）. Moreover,the comprehensive risk should be attributed to the second level in the state of yellow warning. Thus,the model we have proposed can

关 键 词：安全管理工程 民用机场停机坪 安全风险预警 三维风险 层次分析法 模糊综合评价法 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]