跨境资金流动先导指标研究  

Research on Leading Indicators of Cross-border Capital Flows

作　　者：宋金桂[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行淄博市中心支行,山东淄博255000

出　　处：《浙江金融》2018年第7期26-32,81,共8页Zhejiang Finance

摘　　要：在我国对外开放程度持续深化和资本项目可兑换进程有序推进的背景下,跨境资金流动风险不断加大,而跨境资金流动先导指标体系的不健全,预判指导性不足,时常使监管部门陷入频繁调整、被动应对的局面,同时需承受国内外市场主体认为监管严格、调控过度的舆论压力。为此,本文从宏观、中观、微观层面,探索研究跨境资金流动的先导指标,运用VAR模型验证各先导指标对短期和中长期跨境资金的影响,并提出政策建议。With the deepening of our country＇s opening-up and the progressively advance of making capital account convertible, risks of cross-border capital flows are increasing. Meanwhile, imperfection of the cross-border capital flows leading indicator system and insufficient predicative guidance lead to the situation that regulatory authorities sometimes have to response passively and frequently make adjustment of policies, facing the pressure of public opinions about strict supervision and excessive control from domestic and abroad market participants. Therefore, this thesis aims to research on the leading indicators of cross-border capital flows fiom the perspectives of macro level, middle level and micro level, applying VAR model to verify the leading indicators＇ influences on short-term as well as medium and long-term cross-border capital, and then provides suggestions.

关 键 词：跨境资金 双向流动 先导指标 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F831.6[经济管理—金融学]