西藏公路交通地质灾害气象预警  

Warning of geological hazard in Tibet along major highways

作　　者：德庆卓嘎[1] 张国平[2] 胡骏楠 边巴多吉[1] DEQING Zhuoga;ZHANG Guoping;HU Junnan;BIANBA Douji(Meteorological Bureau of TAR,Lhasa,Tibet 850000,China;Public Weather Service Centre of CMA,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]西藏自治区气象局,西藏拉萨850000 [2]中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京100081

出　　处：《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2018年第4期121-129,145,共10页The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control

基　　金：西藏自治区科学技术厅2014年软科学研究计划项目(Z2014R92F0101);国家气象局气象关键技术集成与应用面上项目(CMAGJ2014M49)

摘　　要：从交通气象服务需求和面向公众出行安全出发,建立公路交通地质灾害预报业务系统,生成道路安全通行气象条件影响预报服务产品。首先以川藏公路交通地质灾害为普查分析对象,开展了西藏主要公路交通地质灾害风险普查,确定地质灾害隐患路段;结合历史灾害数据统计分析,利用有效降水与滑坡泥石流灾害的概率关系模型及分析结果,对灾害区域进行划分评价;最终用卫星定量估计降水方法,建立预报系统,生成影响预报产品。该系统已投入业务使用,预报产品相继通过西藏自治区交通厅路网中心、西藏公安厅交管局及西藏电视台"路况信息"栏目对外公开发布,为加强西藏公路交通气象灾害防治提供了参考依据。To meet the needs of traffic meteorological service and safety of public travel,the paper established geological hazard warning system for road traffic and produced a meteorological warning product for road traffic safety. First, the geological hazard along Sichuan-Tibet road were investigated, the geological hazard investigation of road traffic in Tibet were carried out to determine the geologically dangerous area. Then,combining statistic analysis of historical disaster data, a probabilistic relation mode correlating effective precipitation with landslides and debris flows was used for evaluation and classification of disaster area.Finally,based on satellite rainfall estimating technique,a warning system was established and an warning product was produced. The system has come into use,forecasting information are releasing through road network center of the transportation department of Tibet autonomous region,the traffic management bureau of Tibet public security department,as well as Tibet TV. The study can provide support for strengthening traffic meteorological warning and geological hazard prevention.

关 键 词：西藏交通 气象 地质灾害 影响预报 

分 类 号：P642[天文地球—工程地质学]