主要贸易伙伴进口关税对中国出口的影响  

The Influence of Import Tariffs of Major Trading Partners on China's Exports

作　　者：徐艳[1] 袁奥博 巫姮 XU Yan;YUAN Ao-bo;WU Heng(School of Economics and Management,Hainan University,Haikou570228,Hainan;China Cinda Asset Management Co.,Ltd.,Guangdong Branch,Guangzhou510620,Guangdong;School of Economics,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou310058,Zhejiang)

机构地区：[1]海南大学经济与管理学院,海南海口570228 [2]中国信达资产管理股份有限公司广东分公司,广东广州510620 [3]浙江大学经济学院,浙江杭州310058

出　　处：《商学研究》2018年第4期5-14,共10页Commercial Science Research

摘　　要：为评估主要贸易伙伴进口关税变化对中国出口的影响,以中国23个主要贸易伙伴2002年至2016年的数据为样本做了实证研究。研究结果表明,贸易伙伴提高进口关税会减少中国的出口,这一结论具有一致性和稳健性,贸易伙伴进口关税与中国出口之间存在因果关系。针对主要贸易伙伴所有产品、初级产品和工业产品的进口关税对中国相应产品出口的影响做了数值估算,结果发现这一数值结果仅适用于23个主要贸易伙伴,且工业产品对贸易伙伴进口关税的弹性远大于初级产品。最后,结合研究结论和当前形势简要提出了政策建议。Based on the data of China’ s 23 major trading partners from 2002 to 2016, with empirical research methods, we estimated influence of import tariffs of major trading partners on China＇s exports. The results of the study indicate that the increase of import tariffs by trading partners will reduce China’s exports. This conclusion is consistent and robust, and there is a causal relationship between import tariffs of trading partners and Chinese exports. A numerical value of the impact of import tariffs on all products, primary products and industrial products of major trading partners on the export of corresponding products in China was estimated. This numerical result was found to be applied only to the 23 major trading partners. And the elasticity of import tariffs of industrial products on trading partners is much greater than that of primary products. Finally, the policy recommendations are briefly put forward in light of the research findings and the current situation.

关 键 词：贸易战 主要贸易伙伴 进口关税 中国出口 回归分析 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易] F745[经济管理—产业经济]