中国民航碳排放的历史特征及未来趋势预测  

Historical Characteristics and Future Trend Forecast of Civil Aviation Carbon Emissions in China

作　　者：于敬磊 周玲玲 胡华清 Yu Jinglei;Zhou Lingling;Hu Huaqing(China Academy of Civil Aviation Science and Technology,Beijing 100028)

机构地区：[1]中国民航科学技术研究院

出　　处：《中外能源》2018年第8期10-15,共6页Sino-Global Energy

基　　金：中国清洁发展机制(CDM)基金2014年度赠款项目;中国民航“十三五”应对气候变化总体思路及工作方案前期研究(项目编号:2014028)

摘　　要：中国民航面临日益严峻的节能减排压力,亟需开展行业碳排放预测相关研究。从1990~2016年来看,总体上我国民航业的碳排放年增长率低于周转量年增长率,吨公里燃油消耗呈稳步下降趋势;但2010年后出现了碳排放增长率高于周转量增长率的情况,吨公里油耗略有上升。由于我国民航燃油效率已经处于较高水平,提升空间不大,未来将在一定程度上影响减排潜力。利用kaya模型和LMDI分解法分析中国民航碳排放的主要驱动因素和贡献率,并设定8种排放情景预测民航未来的碳排放量。结果表明,在影响民航碳排放的运输规模效应、能源强度效应、运输结构效应、能源替代效应等因素中,能源强度效应是抑制碳排放增长的主要因素,而运输规模效应则是促进碳排放增长的主导因素,运输规模增长将继续推动我国民航碳排放的增长,而依靠能源强度下降实现行业减排的潜力将越来越小;替代能源尚未发挥作用且未来发展趋势不明朗。根据预测,中国民航碳排放量2020年将达到1.32×108~1.35×108t,2035年的碳排放量是2020年的1.9~2.6倍,2050年的碳排放量是2020年的1.6~3.9倍。China′s civil aviation industry is under the increasingly severe pressure of energy conservation and emission reduction,and it is urgent to carry out researches on carbon emission forecast for the industry.From 1990 to 2016,the annual growth rate of carbon emissions in China ′ s civil aviation industry was generally lower than the annual growth rate of turnover,and the fuel consumption per ton-kilometer showed a steady downward trend.However,after 2010,the growth rate of carbon emissions was higher than the growth rate of turnover,and the fuel consumption per ton-kilometer increased slightly.Since the fuel efficiency of China ′ s civil aviation is relatively high,there is little room for improvement,and it will affect the potential of emission reduction to some extent in the future.Kaya model and LMDI decomposition method were used to ana-lyze the main contributors of civil aviation carbon emissions in China and their contribution rates,and eight scenarios were set to analyze the future carbon emissions of civil aviation.The results show that among the factors influencing the civil aviation carbon emissions such as transportation scale effect,energy intensity effect,transport structure effect and energy substitution effect,the energy intensity effect is the main factor that inhibits the growth of carbon emissions,while the transportation scale effect is the dominant factor that promotes the growth of carbon emissions.The growth of transportation scale will continuously promote the growth of civil aviation carbon emissions in China,and the potential to reduce emissions by reducing energy intensity will become smaller.Alternative energy has not yet played its role,and its future development trend is not clear.According to the forecast,the civil aviation carbon emissions in China will reach 132-135 million tons in 2020,and the carbon emissions in 2035 and 2050 will be 1.9-2.6 times and 1.6-3.9 times that in 2020 respectively.

关 键 词：民航碳排放 驱动因素 运输规模 能源强度 贡献率 情景预测 

分 类 号：F562[经济管理—产业经济] X738[环境科学与工程—环境工程]