黑龙江省流出人口城市居留意愿及其影响因素研究  

An Analysis on the Residing Preference and Influencing Factors of Out-migrants in Heilongjiang Province

作　　者：王胜今[1] 张磊 杨静 WANG Shengjin;ZHANG Lei;YANG Jing(Center for Northeast Asian Studies,Jilin University,Changchun Jilin,130012,China;Health and Family Planning Information Center of Heilongjiang Province,Harbin Heilongjiang,150001,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学东北亚研究中心,吉林长春130012 [2]黑龙江省卫生和计划生育信息中心,黑龙江哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《人口学刊》2018年第5期47-54,共8页Population Journal

基　　金：2015年度黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目:黑龙江省人口老龄化社会风险评价及对策研究(15RKC01)

摘　　要：随着我国经济社会的不断发展和区域经济格局的演变,大规模、长距离的人口迁移流动特征十分突出。对于流出地而言,大量的人口外流将带来流出地人口和人力资本流失,对流出地的长期可持续发展产生不利影响。黑龙江省持续多年为人口净流出省份,流出人口对现居住地的居留意愿能够反映他们在城市中的生活环境、文化环境、经济环境、生育观念等融入程度,对流出人口在现居地居留意愿进行研究可以探寻影响其长期居留的因素,推测其回流黑龙江省的可能性。本文利用2015年国家卫生计生委流动人口动态监测调查数据,从年龄特征、性别特征、受教育程度、流动特征等角度描述性分析黑龙江省流出人口的总体特征,采用Logistic回归模型对黑龙江省跨省流出人口在现居住地的长期居留意愿及其影响因素进行定量分析。研究发现一定条件影响下黑龙江省流出人口比东北三省流出人口重新回到流出地的概率更大;黑龙江省高学历、青壮年人口流出较多,在现居住地的长期居留意愿呈现较强趋势;流出人口的收支比可以对居留意愿产生强烈影响。因此,建议黑龙江省应以促进区域经济建设为出发点,加快政府改革步伐,特别是实施人才战略研究,有的放矢地改进人才发展规划,重视黑龙江省人才,留住人才,为振兴黑龙江省经济提供有效的人才储备。With the development of our economy and society and the evolution of regional economic structure,the characteristics of large-scale,long-distance migration are very prominent. For the regions,a large number of out-migrants will result in the loss of population and human capital,and adversely affect the long-term sustainable development. Heilongjiang Province has been a province of net out-migrants for many years. The residents＇ willingness to stay in the current place of residence can reflect their living environment,cultural environment,economic environment,and fertility concepts. Study on the migrants＇ willingness to stay in their residence places can understand the influencing factors affecting their long-term residence,and the possibility of returning to their hometown. Using the data of the dynamic monitoring survey of floating population of the National Health Commission in 2015,this paper describes the general characteristics of out-migrants in Heilongjiang Province from the aspects of age characteristics,sex characteristics,education level and flow characteristics,and uses the Logistic regression model to make a long-term residence intentions of the migrants in the present residence and its influencing factors. We found that under certain conditions,the out-migrants in Heilongjiang Province are more likely to return than other provinces in Northeast provinces;The out-migrants of Heilongjiang Province are young and high level of educated with a long-term desire to stay in the current place of residence;The income and expenditure ratio have a strong influence on the residence intention for out-migrants. Therefore,we propose that government should take the promotion of regional economic development as its starting point,accelerate the pace of reforms,carry out research on talent strategy,improve talent development plans,and ensure that talents are maintained and retained.

关 键 词：流出人口 城市居留意愿 影响因素 黑龙江省 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学]