论文早期下载量可否预测后期被引量?——以图书情报领域期刊为例  

Can Downloads Predict Subsequent Citations: A Case Study on Journals of Library and Information Science

作　　者：熊泽泉[1,2,3] 段宇锋 

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学图书馆,上海200241 [2]华东师范大学经济与管理学部,上海200241 [3]华东师大学术评价与促进研究中心,上海200241

出　　处：《图书情报知识》2018年第4期32-42,共11页Documentation,Information & Knowledge

基　　金：2017年度长三角地区高校图书馆联盟-图书情报研究基金项目资助成果之一

摘　　要：以2006—2008年出版的图情领域期刊论文作为研究对象,采用两步聚类法对单篇论文在7年内的绝对下载量与被引量进行聚类分析。在此基础上,基于动态视角对不同下载模式和不同引文模式下论文的下载量与被引量的相关性进行了研究。结果发现,累积下载量与累积被引量存在线性相关性,且两者相关性随时间的增长而增强;平均下载量最高及平均下载量最低的下载模式比平均下载量居中的下载模式,下载量与被引量相关性更高,且这一现象在发文初期更加显著;不同引文模式下也有类似发现。本研究认为:随着时间的增长,论文的下载量与被引量在表征论文的使用和有用程度上逐渐达到统一,读者的下载行为更多地转化成为引用行为;论文发表初期高下载及低下载论文的下载量可作为后期被引量预测的依据之一;而论文发表初期下载量居中的论文,下载量与被引量相关性较差,不适合利用其下载量数据对被引量进行预测。Taking papers from 2006 to 2008 in the field of library and information science journalsasresearch objects, this paper conducts a two-step cluster analysis on the downloads and citations of every paper. Then, the correlation between downloads and citations in various patterns has been studied in a dynamic perspective. It has been found that there is a linear relationship between cumulative downloads and cumulative citations, which increases with time. Stronger correlation between downloads and citations has been observed in the pattern with the most and fewest average downloads, and this phenomenon is more prominent at the early stage of publication. Similar findings were found in different citation patterns. The result sug- gests that downloads and citations tend to be unified in the evaluation of the use and usefulness of articles and readers＂ down- load behavior is likely to convert into citation behavior; the highest and lowest downloads of papers can be used as a predic- tor for the latter citations, while isnt applicable in papers of medium downloads.

关 键 词：被引量 下载量 相关性 图书情报领域 下载模式 被引模式 

分 类 号：G354.2[文化科学—情报学]