基于模糊因果图的地铁车门系统可靠性分析  

Reliability Analysis of Subway Door System Based on Fuzzy Causality Diagram

作　　者：杨艺果 王洪春 YANG Yiguo;WANG Hongchun(College of Mathematics,Chongqing Normal University,Chongqing 401331,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆师范大学数学科学学院,重庆401331

出　　处：《湖北民族学院学报（自然科学版）》2018年第3期348-351,共4页Journal of Hubei Minzu University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(13BTJ008)

摘　　要：针对地铁车辆在运行过程中车门不能正常打开这一问题,利用因果图建立模型,并结合相关部件发生故障的概率,对地铁车门系统进行可靠性分析.由于系统中各部件发生故障的概率具有不确定性,故引入三角模糊数对因果图进行定量分析,从而得到各事件发生的模糊条件概率.最后,根据相关统计资料及数据,在已知证据条件发生的情况下,确定对车门系统影响最大的事件以及导致该事件发生的主要原因.研究表明,模糊因果图能够有效地对系统进行可靠性分析.In view of the problem that the subway door can’ t open normally during the operation of the subway vehicle,the model is built with the causality diagram,and the reliability analysis of the subway door system is carried out according to the probability of the failure of the related parts. Because of the uncertainty of the failure probability of each component in the system,triangular fuzzy numbers are introduced to make a quantitative analysis of the causality graph,so as to get the fuzzy conditional probability of the occurrence of each event. Finally,according to the relevant statistical data,the events which have the greatest impact on the car door system and the main cause of the event are determined in known evidence conditions.The research shows that fuzzy causality diagram can effectively analyze the reliability of the system.

关 键 词：可靠性 因果图 模糊数 地铁车门系统 

分 类 号：O223[理学—运筹学与控制论]