基于系统动力学的农产品生产与冷链物流联动机理研究——以云南省为例  

Research on Interaction Mechanism of Agricultural Production Industry and Cold-chain logistics Industry Based on System Dynamics——Evidence From Yunnan

作　　者：杨扬[1] 朱瑶瑶 YANG Yang;ZHU Yao-yao(School of Transportation Engineering,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学交通工程学院,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《物流工程与管理》2018年第9期1-7,共7页Logistics Engineering and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"国际陆港演化机理及仿真研究"(71463035)

摘　　要：为分析农产品生产与冷链物流的联动发展,运用系统动力学理论,构建了农产品生产与冷链物流联动发展的系统动力学模型。以云南省的农产品生产与冷链物流业的联动发展现状为例进行仿真模拟。结果表明:农产品生产与冷链物流的联动效应随时间的变化更加明显;农产品品质需求占比的增加对冷链物流量的影响显著,最高增量可达85%;冷链物流对农产品生产的贡献率及农产品生产对冷链物流的贡献率对农产品需求量、农产品生产量、冷链物流量等的影响因子在35%以内。最后,针对仿真结果提出相应的联动策略。In order to analyze the interaction mechanism of agricultural production industry and cold-chain logistics industry,agricultural production industry and cold-chain logistics industry linkage is established by using system dynamics theory. Taking the situation of agricultural production industry and cold-chain logistics industry linkage in Kunming as example,the simulation is conducted. The simulation result indicates that with the increase of time,the linkage effect between agricultural production industry and cold-chain logistics industry is more obvious; the increase of agricultural product quality demand has a significant impact on the cold-chain logistics flow,the maximum increment can reach 85%; The contribution rate of cold chain logistics to agricultural product production and the contribution rate of agricultural product production to cold chain logistics are less than 35% for agricultural product demand,agricultural product production,and cold chain flow. Finally,the corresponding linkage strategy is proposed according to the simulation results.

关 键 词：系统动力学 农产品 冷链物流 联动机理 仿真分析 

分 类 号：F252.2[经济管理—国民经济]