油气管道滑坡灾害危险性评价指标体系  

Hazard assessment index system of landslide disasters along oil and gas pipelines

作　　者：冼国栋 吴森[2] 潘国耀[2] 谭超[2] XIAN Guodong;WU Sen;PAN Guoyao;TAN Chao(PetroChina Southwest Pipeline Company;Sichuan Geologic Engineering Investigation Institute)

机构地区：[1]中国石油西南管道公司 [2]四川省地质工程勘察院

出　　处：《油气储运》2018年第8期865-872,共8页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

基　　金：中国石油西南管道公司科研项目"西南管道公司管道沿线地质灾害风险评价体系;评价模型研究";20150018;中国石油西南管道公司科研项目"西南管道公司管道沿线地质灾害发育分布规律研究及地质环境风险性图形库建设";20150019

摘　　要：为了实现管道滑坡灾害危险性的定量评价,以中国石油西南管道沿线64处典型滑坡为例,通过灾害影响因素分析,初步确定评价指标体系备选指标因子,利用贡献率模型,通过样本统计,分析滑坡灾害影响因子的敏感性。按照敏感性大小将影响因子划分为3级,最终保留中、高影响因子中可以通过野外调查手段获取的坡度、坡面形态、土体类型、历史滑塌、现今变形、土体状态、滑体厚度、降雨、地震烈度9个因子,构建了单体管道滑坡灾害危险性评价指标体系,从而为滑坡灾害危险性评价提供了依据。In order to realize quantitative evaluation on the landslide hazards along pipelines, 64 typical landslide disasters along pipelines of Petro China Southwest Pipeline Company were taken as examples in this paper. The candidate indexes of assessment index system were determined preliminarily by analyzing disaster influence factors. Then, the sensitivity of influence factors of landslide disasters was analyzed by means of sample statistics in the contribution ratio model. According to the sensitivity value, the influence factors are divided into three grades. And ultimately, 9 medium-and high-sensitivity influence factors that can be obtained by means of field investigation, i.e., slope, slope morphology, soil type, historical landslides, current deformation, soil state, landslide body thickness, rainfall and seismic intensity, are selected to build the hazard assessment index system of landslide disasters along single pipelines, providing the basis for the hazard assessment of landslide disasters.

关 键 词：油气管道 贡献率模型 滑坡灾害 影响因子 敏感性 指标体系 危险性评价 

分 类 号：TE832[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]