基于DID模型的科技政策资助效应实证研究——以杰青基金地球科学项目实施20年为例  

Empirical Research on the Funding Effect of Science and Technology Policy Based on DID Model:Take the 20 Years of Implementation of Distinguished Young Scientists’ Fund in Earth Science Projects as an Example

作　　者：田人合 张志强[1] 于洁 王萍[4] Tian Renhe;Zhang Zhiqiang;Yu Jie;Wang Ping(Chengdu Library and Information Center,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chengdu 610041;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049;Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Interdisciplinary Center for Social and Behavioral Studies,Dalian 116025;School of Public Health,Jilin University,Changchun 130021)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院成都文献情报中心,成都610041 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]东北财经大学社会与行为跨学科研究中心,大连116025 [4]吉林大学公共卫生学院,长春130021

出　　处：《图书情报工作》2018年第18期110-121,共12页Library and Information Service

基　　金：国家社会科学重点基金项目“面向领域知识发现的学科信息学理论与应用研究”(项目编号:17ATQ008);国家自然科学基金应急管理项目“中国与国际科研合作网络分析研究——以基金地学国际合作项目为例”(项目编号:41741001)研究成果之一

摘　　要：[目的／意义]科技创新是现代化经济体系的重要战略支撑，改革开放后，为推动我国经济发展，出台并实施了一系列科技政策旨在促进科技发展，但是这些科技政策的资助效应如何，科技政策实施历史周期中资助效应的变化情况如何已经引起广泛关注。[方法／过程]以已经实施了20年的国家杰出青年科学基金地球科学项目为研究对象进行实证分析，为克服样本选择偏误所导致的内生性问题，采用DID模型评估杰青基金对科学家科研论文产出效率的影响，提出“环境-动机-行为”模型对研究结果进行解释。[结果／结论]实证结果表明，1994—2008年杰青基金资助效应显著的年份达到12年，显著比例达到80％；相比没有获得杰青基金资助的科学家，获得杰青基金资助的科学家可以多发表论文0．412—3．234篇／年；数据换算后，与每年获得杰青基金资助科学家的同时期其他科学家相比，获得杰青基金资助的科学家可以多发表论文0．426—3．277篇／年；资助效应最大的是2002年杰青基金，2007、2008年杰青基金资助效应不显著；科技政策资助效应评估时，可以通过该方法构建对照组，实现因果效应推断的研究目的。[Purpose/significance] Science and technology innovation is an important strategic support for modem e- conomic system. After the reform and opening up, in order to promote China＇ s economic development, China government introduced and implemented a series of science and technology policy aims to promote the development of science and tech- nology. However, how is the founding effect of these science and technology and policies, how the changes in founding effects in the historical cycle of science and technology policy have caused wide spread concern. [ Method/process ] This paper conducted an empirical research of the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars Earth Science Project that has been in operation for 20 years（JieQing fund） as an example. In order to overcome the endogeneity problem caused by sample selection bias ,the study used DID model to assess the effect of fund for distinguished young on the research papers output efficiency of scientists, and put forward the ＂environment-motivation-behavior＂ model to explain the research result. [ Result/conclusion] The empirical results show that between 1994 to 2008, the significant funding effect of JieQing fund reached 12 years, with a significant proportion 80%. Scientists who have received JieQing fund（JieQing Scientists） were a- ble to published more 0.412 to 3. 234 papers per year than those who have not received JieQing fund. After data conversion, compared with other scientists who in the same period（Same period Scientists） of JieQing Scientists, JieQing scientists can published more 0.426 - 3. 277 papers per year. The largest funded effect of JieQing fund was in 2002, but the funding effect was not significant in 2007 and 2008. When evaluating the effect of science and technology policy support, the control group can be constructed by this method in this paper to achieve the research purpose of causal effect inference.

关 键 词：数据科学 DID模型 国家杰出青年科学基金 科技政策评价 

分 类 号：C93-03[经济管理—管理学]