基于Laslie模型的人口结构与经济发展的预测  

The Prediction of Population Structure and Economic Development Based on Laslies Model

作　　者：方梓涵 张焕明[1] 朱家明[1] Fang Zihan;Zhang Huanming;Zhu Jiaming(Anhui University of Finance and Economic)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学

出　　处：《哈尔滨师范大学自然科学学报》2018年第3期1-7,共7页Natural Science Journal of Harbin Normal University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(11601001);安徽省教育厅项目(2016ckjh007)

摘　　要：针对全面二孩政策对对中国人口结构的影响问题,以1996~2015年中国人口数、人口自然变动表等人口数据为基础,构建了Leslie人口增长预测、队列分析法等模型.综合运用了MATLAB、EXCEL及C++等软件编程求解,分析了人口结构指标,预测了未来人口分布结构.最后设计新模版,为中国全面二孩政策的实施和人口结构的预测提供参考.Based on the impact of comprehensive two-child policy on China ＇s population structure,based on demographic data such as China＇s population and natural changes in population from 1996 to 2015,Leslie＇s population growth forecasting and cohort analysis models were constructed. Comprehensive use of MATLAB,EXCEL and C ＋ ＋ software programming solutions, the population structure indicators is analyzed,and the future population distribution structure is predicted. Finally,a new template is designed to provide reference for the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy in China and the prediction of the population structure.

关 键 词：Leslie人口增长预测模型 JOHANSEN检验 人口分布函数 全面二孩政策 

分 类 号：O231.5[理学—运筹学与控制论]