基于马尔可夫链的流沙河流域降水预测  

Precipitation Prediction in the Liusha River Basin Based on Markov Chain

作　　者：胡学祥[1] 黄启胜[1] 舒坤海 Xuexiang Hu;Qisheng Huang;Kunhai Shu(Xishuangbanna Branch,Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau of Yunnan Provincial,Jinghong Yunna)

机构地区：[1]云南省水文水资源局西双版纳分局

出　　处：《水资源研究》2018年第4期398-403,共6页Journal of Water Resources Research

摘　　要：降水预测对流域水资源开发利用与管理决策具有重要意义。利用勐海站1958~2016年降水量资料,结合马尔可夫链对西双版纳流沙河该流域降水进行短期预测。结果表明,2015年和2016年验证期预测丰枯状态与实际完全吻合,马尔可夫链在该流域降水预测中具有较高的精度;2017~2020年预测期降水丰枯状态分别为平水、偏枯、平水、偏枯,该时段降水量总体偏少。Precipitation prediction is of great significance to the development, utilization and management of water resources in river basins. Using the precipitation data of Menghai hydrological station from 1958 to 2016, the short-term prediction of the precipitation of the Liusha River was conducted based on the Markov chain. The results show that the predicted abundance in 2015 and 2016 is completely consistent with the actual situation; the Markov chain has high accuracy in the precipitation forecast of the basin. The precipitation in the forecast period of 2017 to 2020 is normal water year, partial dry year, normal water year and partial dry year, the total precipitation during this period is less than usual.

关 键 词：马尔可夫链 状态预测 降水 流沙河流域 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]