我国地方财政收支互动性研究——基于省级面板VAR模型的实证分析  

The Interactivity of Local Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure in China——An Empirical Analysis Based on the VAR Model of the Provincial Panel

作　　者：邓晓兰[1] 金博涵[1] 李铮[1] Deng Xiaolan;Jin Bohan;Li Zheng

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院

出　　处：《财政研究》2018年第7期14-27,共14页Public Finance Research

基　　金：国家留学基金2017年国家建设高水平大学公派研究生项目(项目编号:201706280314)

摘　　要：财政可持续性要求硬化地方预算约束、保持财政收支之间互动性,本文采用面板VAR模型基于2007-2015年省级层面的财政收支数据,分析省级政府的财政收支互动关系,从而寻求加强收支互动关系来硬化地方政府预算约束的路径。研究发现:第一,总体来看,地方财政自有收入同公共财政支出之间并不存在互动关系,反而转移支付的增加会显著增加政府开支;第二,税收收入的增加会促进地方政府的支出膨胀倾向而其减少未必会降低政府的开支;第三,非税收入的变动不影响公共财政支出,但政府却会通过寻求非税收入的扩张来减轻支出增加的压力;第四,分样本的实证表明,财政自给度是决定收支互动关系的关键因素。最后,本文给出的政策启示是通过完善财政分权制度和财政管理规则去硬化地方政府预算约束,增强我国地方财政自给度和财政收支互动性。Hardening budget constraint of local governments requires that there exists a stable relationship between fiscal revenue and expenditure. This article explores the interactive relationship between public revenue and expenditure of province-level government based on the data from 2007 to 2015 with PVAR model. We find that there exists no interactive relationship between local financial revenue and expenditure in general, while the increase of transfer payment would increase the expenditure of local governments. The increase in tax revenue motives local governments to spend more while the reduction does not necessarily lower public expenditure. Moreover, nontax revenue does not affect public expenditure significantly. The sub-sample analysis results suggest that the degree of fiscal autonomy is the key factor. Finally, we propose that the transfer payment institution should be reformed and the management of nontax revenue should be tightened to encourage local governments to increase tax revenue and enhance the interactive relationship between fiscal revenue and expenditure.

关 键 词：地方财政收支 预算软约束 转移支付 财政自给度 

分 类 号：F810.4[经济管理—财政学]