极化理论视角下金融发展与经济发展关系研究--“金融窖藏”说法的新回应  

On the Relationship between Financial Development and Economic Development from the Perspective of Polarization Theory--A Response to " Financial Cellar"

作　　者：陈清[1] 张海军 CHEN Qing;ZHANG Haijun(School of Economics,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350108,China;School of Economics,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China)

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学经济学院,福建福州350108 [2]华东师范大学经济学院,上海200241

出　　处：《经济与管理评论》2018年第5期114-129,共16页Review of Economy and Management

摘　　要：在极化理论的支持下,从我国金融和经济发展差距的角度来研究金融发展和经济增长之间的关系,对"金融窖藏"的说法做出新回应。通过测算全国31个省(区、市)的经济发展和金融发展极化指数,发现我国地区间经济发展极化指数逐年下降,金融发展极化指数先上升后下降。Panel-VAR模型的实证结果显示,金融的发展在短期内对经济的增长存在负向作用,长期中能带动经济增长;对产业结构短暂的负向影响后,金融发展促进了地区产业结构的优化从而间接拉动了经济的增长;在供给侧结构性改革的大背景下,"金融发展—产业优化—经济增长"这条间接路径的作用效果更为显著。With the support of polarization theory,this paper studies the relationship between financial development and economic growth from the perspective of the gap between China ＇s financial and economic development and responds to the theory of ＂ financial cellar＂. By measuring the polarization index of economic development and financial development in 31 provinces（ regions and municipalities）,we find that the regional polarization of economic development has been declining year by year,and the polarization of financial development has increased at first and then declined. The empirical results of Panel-VAR model show that financial development has a negative effect on economic growth in the short term and can promote economic growth in a long term. After a brief negative effect on industrial structure,financial development promotes the optimization of regional industrial structure,and indirectly stimulates economic growth. Under the background of supply-side structural reform,the indirect effect of ＂ financial development-industrial optimization-economic growth＂ is more significant.

关 键 词：金融窖藏 极化理论 产业结构 Panel-VAR模型 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]