中国经济减速的供给侧分析  

A Supply Side Analysis of China's Economic Growth Slowdown

作　　者：蒋伟杰[1] 张少华 JIANG WeiJie;ZHANG ShaoHua(Jinhe Center for Economic Research,Xi＇an Jiaotong University,Xi＇an 710049;School of Economics and Statistics,Guangzhou University,Guangzhou 510006)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学金禾经济研究中心,陕西西安710049 [2]广州大学经济与统计学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《财贸研究》2018年第6期1-14,共14页Finance and Trade Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目"中国的‘中部迷失’问题:典型事实;形成机理及宏观后果"(71673253)

摘　　要：立足供给侧视角,构造分析中国经济减速的分解框架。研究发现:(1)本轮中国经济减速早有隐患:一是20世纪90年代以后,资本生产率增长出现明显的下降趋势;二是整个样本期内,劳动生产率的技术效率表现不佳。(2)中国经济30多年的高增长有着坚实的效率基础,全要素生产率增长对中国经济增长的贡献度高达65.19%;全要素生产率增长也是"西部大开发"和"中部崛起"两大区域战略得以成功的关键。(3)本轮中国经济发展特征是减速增效,尽管2008—2012年实际GDP增长率9.25%低于1978—2012年实际GDP增长率9.92%,但是TFPG对经济增长的贡献度高达65.19%,远高于1978—2012年的53.63%。(4)发展金融、深化国企改革与提高人力资本水平等有助于消除中国全要素生产率增长的双重隐患,也有助于中国经济发展走出"高投资—高增长—低效率—高投资—高增长"的恶性循环。How to understand and interpret the slowdown of China＇s economic growth becomes an im- portant challenge facing the scholars at home and abroad. This paper proposes a new framework to analyze the slowdown of China＇s economic growth based on supply side perspective. The results show that： （1）China＇s economic slowdown has hidden dangers. First, after 1990s capital productivity growth has undergone a sig- nificant slowdown. Second, during the sample period labor technical efficiency has a very limited growth. （2） The high growth rate of China＇s economy over the past 30 years has a solid productivity foundation, and TFP growth contributes 65.19% to China＇s economic growth. TFP growth is also the key to the success of the strategy ＂Western Development＂ and ＂the Rise of Central China＂. （3） The current economic growth is characterized by slowing down and increasing efficiency. Although the real GDP growth rate of 9.25 % in 2008 -2012 is lower than real GDP growth rate of 9.92% in 1978 -2012, the contribution of TFPG to eco- nomic growth is as high as 65.19%, much higher than 53.63% in 1978 -2012. （4）The development of finance, the deepening of state - owned enterprise reform and the improvement of human capital will help e- liminate the dual challenges of China＇s TFP growth, and push China＇s economic growth out of ＂high invest- ment - high growth - low efficiency - high investment - high growth＂ cycle.

关 键 词：供给侧 经济减速 全要素生产率增长 劳动生产率 资本生产率 

分 类 号：F12[经济管理—世界经济]