数量调控还是价格调控——新常态下货币政策调控方式选择研究  

Quantitative Regulation or Price Regulation:The Choice of Monetary Policy Regulatory Methods under the New Normal

作　　者：郝冬冬[1] 王晓芳[1] 郑斌 HAO DongDong;WANG XiaoFang;ZHENG Bin(School of Economics and Finance,Xi＇an Jiaotong University,Xi＇an 710061;Postdoctoral Research Station,China Merchants Bank,Shenzhen 518040)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061 [2]招商银行博士后科研工作站,广东深圳518040

出　　处：《财贸研究》2018年第6期47-57,共11页Finance and Trade Research

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"中国货币政策有效性研究"(16FJY004)

摘　　要：外汇占款萎缩和银行同业业务扩张改变了基础货币的投放方式和货币派生机制,增强了价格型调控的有效性。而双轨制经济环境与融资结构单一的市场环境扭曲了价格机制和利率传导路径,制约了价格调控方式的有效实施。使用FAVAR模型对两种调控方式的有效性进行实证分析,结果表明,数量调控方式的有效性要优于价格方式。因此,在面对不同约束主体和政策目标时,中央银行需兼顾两种调控方式,只有持续推进直接融资市场扩容,解决预算软约束问题,价格调控方式才能有效实施。The shrinking of foreign exchange and the expansion of interbank business have changed the way of base currency delivery and the currency derivative mechanism, and has enhanced the effectiveness of price regulation. Meanwhile dual - track economic structure and low capacity market environment distorts the price mechanism and interest rate transmission path, and restricts the effective implementation of price regulation. FAVAR model is used to analyze the effectiveness of intermediate target, and has found that the effectiveness of the quantitative method is still better than the price method. Therefore, in the face of differ- ent constrained subjects and policy objectives, the central bank needs to balance the two control methods. Only by promoting the expansion of the direct financing market and solving the soft budget constraint, can the price regulation be effectively implemented.

关 键 词：货币政策 数量调控 价格调控 

分 类 号：F832.0[经济管理—金融学]