京津冀产业结构调整对大气污染物排放的影响效应——基于向量自回归(VAR)模型的脉冲响应函数分析  

Effects of industrial structure adjustment on air pollutant emission in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region——Based on the impulse response function of VAR model

作　　者：石磊[1] 王玥[1] 程荣[1] 边杨子 SHI Lei;WANG Yue;CHENG Rong;BIAN Yangzi(School of Environment and Natural Resources,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学环境学院

出　　处：《科技导报》2018年第15期24-31,共8页Science & Technology Review

基　　金：国家重点研发计划专项(2016YFC0209204)

摘　　要：京津冀地区已连续多年被大气污染问题所困扰,产业结构调整能够协调经济发展和环境保护之间的关系。为分析产业结构调整对大气污染的影响效应,选取1999—2015年京津冀地区产业结构和大气污染物排放数据,分别建立第二产业比例与SO_2、工业烟（粉）尘排放量的向量自回归（VAR）模型,并进行脉冲响应函数（IRF）分析。研究发现,产业结构调整对不同地区不同污染物的影响方向、影响大小、影响持续时间均有所差异。为了保证产业结构调整政策的高效实施,京津冀应以3年为政策调整参考周期,对于不同的污染物采取不同的控制手段,并联系本地实际开展大气污染物减排工作。The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has been plagued by atmospheric pollution for many years. Adjustment of industrial structure can harmonize the relationship between economic development and environmental protection. Studying the effect of industrial restructuring on air pollution has become an urgent task in reduction of regional air pollutant emissions. At present, the research on the impact of industrial structure adjustment on air pollution mainly adopts three methods： EKC curve verification, time series analysis, and spatial econometric method. This research selects time series data of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei＇s industrial structure and certain air-pollutant emissions during 1999 to 2015 to establish the vector autoregressive（VAR） models for the secondary industry proportion, sulfur dioxide and industrial smoke（dust） emissions, then completes the impulse responses function（IRF） analysis. The findings are that the impact of industrial structure adjustment on different pollutants in different regions are various in terms of direction, degree and duration. In terms of the direction, industrial restructuring cannot reduce emissions of all pollutants in all provinces. In terms of the degree, SO_2 emissions are greatly affected and industrial dust emissions are less affected; emissions in Beijing and Hebei are greatly affected, while the impact in Tianjin is small. In terms of the duration, SO_2 can be affected for a long time, but the impact on industrial dust can＇t last long. In Beijing and Tianjin, the positive impact can last for at least 4 years, while Hebei has only a period not longer than 2~3 years. Therefore, to ensure a high efficiency of industrial restructuring policies, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei should take a three-year reference cycle to adjust the policies.Besides, different control methods should be adopted for different pollutants. And air pollutant emission reduction work should match the local reality.

关 键 词：京津冀 产业结构调整 大气污染物排放 向量自回归模型 脉冲响应函数 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济] X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]