R&D资本存量估计:1995～2017  

R&D Capital Stock Estimate: 1995 ～ 2017

作　　者：王开科[1] WANG Kai-ke(Guangzhou Branch,the People＇s Bank of China,Guangzhou 510120,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行广州分行,广东广州510120

出　　处：《税务与经济》2018年第5期19-25,共7页Taxation and Economy

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"资本存量核算理论方法研究与相关数据库建设"(项目编号:15ZDB135);国家社科基金重点项目"资本存量估算理论方法与应用研究"(项目编号:15ATJ002)

摘　　要：我国已有的R&D资本存量估计研究中,对折旧率的处理普遍过于简化,忽略了折旧率受经济发展阶段影响等诸多因素,使得研究结论的可靠性受到影响。以纳入内生技术进步因素的折旧率估算为切入点,从改进基期R&D资本存量的估计、优化R&D支出转化为资本的滞后期选择、采用更加合理的R&D支出价格指数等方面入手,进行资本存量的估计,是针对这一问题的有益尝试。据此估算我国1995~2017年的R&D资本存量发现:1995年以来,我国R&D资本存量增加迅猛,资本形成呈现出逐年扩张的趋势,到2017年末,R&D资本存量累积增长约28倍,年均增速达16.4%。R&D资本存量估计不仅能为进一步建立与完善我国的资本存量核算方法制度提供重要参考,也可为今后开展宏观经济分析、经济预测和决策提供重要的数量依据。In the research of the existing R＆D capital stock estimation in China, it can be seen that the treatment of depreciation rate is generally too simplified, and the issue that the depreciation rate is affected by many factors in the economic development stages is ignored. So the reliability of research conclusion is weakened. The estima- tion of depreciation rate of incorporating endogenous technological progress element is regarded as a breakthrough point in this paper, and a study is conducted to estimate capital stock in terms of improving the estimation of base-period R＆D capital stocks, converting R＆D expenditures into capital time-lag choices and adopting more reasonable R＆D expenditure price indices. Thus, it is a useful attempt. Based on this, China＇s R＆D capital stock from 1995 to 2017 is estimated. The result indicates that China＇s R＆D capital stock has increased rapidly since 1995, and capital formation has shown an increasing trend year by year. By the end of 2017, the cumula- tive R＆D capital stock has increased by about 28 times, with an average annual increase of 16.4%. The R＆D capital stock estimate can not only provide important references for the further establishment and improvement of accounting methodologies of China＇s capital stock, macroeconomic analysis, economic forecasting and but also can provide an important quantitative basis for future decision-making.

关 键 词：R&D资本存量 折旧率 统计估算 

分 类 号：F221[经济管理—国民经济] F222