滨海城市“气候承载—空间适应”方法研究——厦门气候承载空间模拟分析  

Research on the " Climate Capacity-Spatial Adaptation " Method in Coastal Cities: Simulation Analysis of Climate Carrying Capacity in Xiamen

作　　者：郑开雄[1,2] 运迎霞[1] 常玮[3] ZHENG Kaixiong;YUN Yingxia;CHANG Wei

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑学院,天津300072 [2]中国城市规划设计研究院厦门分院,福建厦门361004 [3]厦门大学建筑与土木工程学院,福建厦门361004

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2018年第8期51-58,82,共9页Urban Development Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"基于智慧技术的滨海大城市安全策略与综合防灾措施研究"(13&ZD162);国家自然科学基金面上项目"低碳理念下基于人工智能的城市空间结构的热岛效应模拟预测研究"(51278330)

摘　　要：城市气候承载力作为城市适应气候变化的核心测度,反映城市系统与气候系统之间互馈关系,其空间状态关乎城市安全与可持续发展。基于DPSIR和状态空间法,构建城市气候承载空间概念模型、气候承载力评价指标体系与评测模型,提出气候承载—空间适应方法体系;结合GIS,以厦门为具体案例城市,定性、定量、定位进行城市气候承载空间模拟分析,创建城市气候承载地图(UCC Map),判定气候承载—空间适应热点区域,进而提出城市气候承载—空间适应优化建议。以补充"气候变化"与"城市空间"相互调节适应的空白,为我国城市积极应对气候变化提供技术支撑。The urban climate carrying capacity,as the core measure of the city＇s adaptation to climate change,reflects the mutual feedback relationship between the urban system and the climate system. Its spatial status is related to urban security and sustainable development. Based on DPSIR and state space method,construct the urban climate-bearing space conceptual model,the climate carrying capacity evaluation index system and evaluation model,and build a Climate Capacity-Spatial Adaptation method system;combine GIS with Xiamen as the concrete case city for urban climate capacity space simulation analyze in qualitatively,quantitatively,and locally,create a UCC map,determine Climate Capacity-Spatial Adaptation hotspots,and propose Climate Capacity-Spatial Adaptation optimization recommendations. To supplement the ＂ climate change＂ and ＂ urban space＂ to adjust the gaps in the adaptation,to provide technical support for China＇s cities to actively respond to climate change.

关 键 词：气候承载 空间适应 评测 模拟 厦门 

分 类 号：TU984[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]