房地产限购政策的有效性评估研究——基于断点回归分析  

Study on the Effectiveness Evaluation of Purchase Restriction Policy:Based on Regression Discontinuity Analysis

作　　者：廖奇云[1] 余建萍 丁一方 LIAO Qiyun;YU Jianping;DING Yifang(School of Construction Management and Real Estate,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400045,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆大学建设管理与房地产学院,重庆400045

出　　处：《建筑经济》2018年第9期86-91,共6页Construction Economy

摘　　要：基于断点回归的分析方法,利用国家中心城市房地产新建住宅价格指数与相关变量的月度数据,对各城市限购政策的有效性进行实证分析。结果表明,短期内限购政策的实施效果对不同城市的房价的作用效果不同,正向影响和负向影响并存,建立长效的房地产调控机制,是维持房地产市场稳定的必要措施。Based on the method of regression discontinuity analysis,the paper uses national central city real estate price index and related monthly data to empirically analyze the effectiveness of the purchase restriction policy. The empirical results demonstrate that the implementation of the purchase restriction policy in the short term has different effects on real estate prices in different cities,and the positive and negative effects coexist,and the establishment of a long-term real estate regulation mechanism is a necessary measure to maintain the stability of real estate market.

关 键 词：房地产 限购政策 断点回归 有效性 

分 类 号：F407.9[经济管理—产业经济]