电子支付、货币替代与货币供给  

Electronic Payment,Currency Substitution,and Money Supply

作　　者：史新鹭 周政宁[1] Shi Xinlu;Zhou Zhengning(Jinhe Center for Economic Research,Xi＇an Jiaotong University,Xi＇an,Shaanxi 710049,China)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学金禾经济研究中心,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《金融经济学研究》2018年第4期24-34,共11页Financial Economics Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(16BJY166)

摘　　要：随着互联网技术的蓬勃发展,电子支付规模不断扩大,作为支付媒介的电子货币日益普及。以中国电子支付发展为背景、以电子货币替代为视角,将电子货币划分为银行卡电子货币与第三方支付电子货币,分别研究了这两类电子货币对货币供给的影响与作用机理,并运用1999~2017年的季度数据实证分析电子货币与货币乘数的相关关系。研究表明,电子货币与货币乘数之间存在协整关系,电子货币能够放大货币乘数、增加货币供应量,其中,银行卡电子货币扩大了央行监控下的货币供给,第三方支付电子货币不仅扩大了央行监控下的货币供给,而且也扩大了央行监控外的货币供给。因此,央行应适时调整货币供应量的统计原则,尽快建立起电子货币统计监测系统及指标体系,借鉴国外通货膨胀目标制的成功经验,制定合理有效的货币政策,以适应新环境的需要。With rapid development in Internet technology,the scale of electronic payment is expanding,and electronic money as a means of payment is becoming increasingly popular. Considering the development of China＇s electronic payment systems,this study focused on electronic money substitution,classifying electronic money into two types： bank cards and third-party payment systems. This study examined the influence and mechanism of these two types of electronic money on money supply. Quarterly data from 1999 to 2017 were used to analyze the correlation between electronic money and money multipliers,and studies have shown a cointegration relationship between the two. Electronic money can amplify money multipliers and increase money supply. In particular,electronic money in the form of bank cards expands money supply monitored by central banks,whereas electronic money in third-party payment systems expands money supply,which may or may not be supervised by central banks. Therefore,central banks should adjust the statistical principles of money supply from time to time and establish a monitoring system and indicator structure as soon as possible to examine the statistics of electronic money. China may learn from successful overseas experiences in inflation targeting and formulate a reasonable and effective monetary policy to fulfill the needs of this new environment.

关 键 词：电子支付 电子货币 货币替代 货币创造 

分 类 号：F822.2[经济管理—财政学]