房产税政策模拟分析——基于CGE视角  

Analysis of property tax reform: A computable general equilibrium approach

作　　者：张顺明[1] 王彦一 王晖 ZHANG Shun-ming;WANG Yan-yi;WANG Hui(School of Finance,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;Business School,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China;School of Economics and Management,Beijing Information Science ＆ Technology University,Beijing 100192,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学财政金融学院 [2]南京大学商学院 [3]北京信息科技大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《管理科学学报》2018年第8期1-20,共20页Journal of Management Sciences in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71573220;71773123);北京市科技计划课题资助项目(z171100002217022);北京知识管理研究基地资助项目

摘　　要：通过建立可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型分析中国房产税改革对经济运行的影响.以2011年经济运行数据作为基期校准各项参数,通过比较不同的财产税和所得税政策下的部门生产、居民消费、社会福利和国民收入,发现房产税将减少征税地区的住房产出和需求,但会对人均GDP较低省份的非住房产业造成一定负面影响.当扩大征税地区时,社会福利和国民收入将总体增加.增加收入税税率在一定程度上可以减缓征收房产税带来的收入差距的扩大.The paper investigates the impacts of the property tax reform in China by developing a computable general equilibrium model. Using economic data in 2011 for calibration, the paper compares the productions, consumption, welfare and national incomes in different equilibria under varied property tax and income tax pol- icies. The simulation shows that the implementation of property tax would decrease both house productions and consumption in the taxed area, and exert negative impacts on the regions with low GDP per capita. If the tax policy is adopted by more regions, the total social welfare and national income would increase. An increase in income tax would be a better policy than the property tax reform to serve the purpose of narrowing down the in- come disparity in China.

关 键 词：一般经济均衡 房产税 收入税 税收改革 

分 类 号：F22[经济管理—国民经济] F812