突发事件应急决策方法演变研究  

Study on the Evolution of Decision-making Methods for Emergency

作　　者：郭世刚 张鹏[1] 吴立志[1] 李增[1] GUO Shigang;ZHANG Peng;WU Lizhi;LI Zeng(Graduate Department of Chinese People＇s Armed Police Force Academy,Langfang 065000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民武装警察部队学院研究生部,廊坊065000

出　　处：《中国公共安全（学术版）》2018年第3期40-43,共4页China Public Security(Academy Edition)

基　　金：教育部人文社科基金"面向突发事件的网络流言风险预警及对策研究"(编号:17YJC630214);河北省科技计划项目"新媒体环境下突发事件危机信息挖掘与决策关键技术研究"(编号:17455610);廊坊软科学研究计划项目"大数据环境下突发事件舆情信息挖掘与决策支持研究"(编号:2017029034)

摘　　要：应急决策方法研究是应急领域研究的关键内容之一,如何在灾害事故发生时实施有效的应急决策,一直是相关部门和学术界迫切需要解决的重要问题。通过对目前常见的应急决策方法进行梳理和总结,可以根据获取事故信息的质量,将现有的决策模型分为经验直觉方法、"预测-应对"模式、"情景-应对"模式三类,概括了传统决策模型的不足,并对"大数据"背景下的决策应用进行总结,归纳出了"大数据"背景下的舆情控制应急决策模式。Emergency decision-making research is one of the key issues in the field of emergency decision-making. How to make effective emergency decision still remains an important issue that the relevant departments and academia urgently need to solve. The current emergency decision-making models are summarized in the paper, and the existing decisionmaking models can be divided into three stages： empirical intuition method, ＂prediction-response＂ model, and ＂scenarioresponse＂ model, according to the quality of the accident information acquired. The shortcomings of the traditional decision-making model are summarized, and by summarizing decision-making applications under the background of ＂big data＂, a new emergency decision-making model of public opinion under the ＂big data＂ background is put forward.

关 键 词：应急决策 “预测-应对” “情景-应对” “大数据” 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]