有舍才有得的选择题：人民币汇率政策反思与前瞻  

The Trade-off Choice:Reflection and Prospect of RMB Exchange Rate Policy

作　　者：管涛 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学董辅礽经济社会发展研究院 [2]中国金融四十人论坛

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2018年第9期3-12,共10页Studies of International Finance

摘　　要："8·11"汇改以来,人民币汇率经历了急跌急涨的轮回。人民币汇率维稳取得超预期成功,美元走弱是必要但非充分条件,关键是通过优化中间价定价机制,人民币兑美元汇率升值重塑了汇率政策公信力。关于中国货币信贷和房地产市场对人民币汇率走势的影响尽管不无道理,但汇率与上述二者并无必然的关系。为了避免出现坏的结果,在治本的同时,对市场预期的引导和管理至关重要。前期,在贬值压力下,有管理浮动虽然不无代价,但让人民币汇率自由浮动也是一个非常冒险的决定。当前,汇率双向波动、市场预期分化是深化汇率市场化改革的有利时机。短期看,有助于防止未来美元走强,避免中国再次陷入被动;长远看,也有利于进一步助推中国改革开放,更好发挥经济全球化的引领作用。Since the August 11 th policy change in 2015, RMB exchange rate has experienced a steep fall and rise cycle. The stabilization of RMB exchange rate has been regained more successfully than expected. A weak dollar is a necessary but not sufficient condition for this success and the key is to reshape the credibility of exchange rate policy by optimizing the central parity rate pricing mechanism and appreciating RMB against the US dollar. It might be partly true that the monetary policy and bank lending condition as well as the real estate market circumstance have influenced the RMB exchange rate trend, but exchange rate is not necessarily related to these factors. To avoid a negative outcome, it is essential to guide and manage market expectations while addressing the root cause. With the previous devaluation pressure, the risk of adopting free floating exchange rate may not be less than managed floating exchange rate. The current conditions of exchange rate bidirectional fluctuation and market expectation differentiation constitute a favorable timing to deepen exchange rate marketization reform. In the short term, it can prevent China from sinking into a passive position again if the US dollar rises. In the long term, it will further boost China＇s opening and reforms as well as a full leading role in economic globalization.

关 键 词：汇率中间解 多重均衡公信力 货币超发 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]