ZG市工作日地铁站点扒窃案件的时空分布及其影响因素  

Spatio-temporal Pattern of Pickpocketing at Subway Stations on Weekdays of ZG City and Its Influencing Factors

作　　者：肖露子 柳林 周素红[1,2] 宋广文 张春霞 陈建国 Xiao Luzi;Liu Lin;Zhou Suhong;Song Guangwen;Zhang Chunxia;Chen Jianguo(Center of lntegrated Geographic Information Analysis,School of Geography and Planning,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,Guangdong,China;Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,Guangdong,China;Center of Geolnformatics for Public Security,School of Geographic Sciences,Guangzhou University,Guangzhou 510006,Guangdong,China;Department of Geography,University of Cincinnati,Cincinnati OH45221-0131,Ohio,USA)

机构地区：[1]中山大学地理科学与规划学院综合地理信息研究中心,广东广州510275 [2]广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点实验室,广东广州510275 [3]广州大学地理科学学院公共安全地理信息分析中心,广东广州510006 [4]辛辛那提大学地理系,辛辛那提OH45221-0131,美国

出　　处：《地理科学》2018年第8期1227-1234,共8页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFB0505500,2018YFB0505503);国家自然科学基金重点项目(41531178);广州市科学研究计划重点项目(201804020016);广东省自然科学基金研究团队项目(2014A030312010)资助~~

摘　　要：以东南沿海城市ZG市为例,分析工作日地铁扒窃案件的时空分布特征,并进一步结合日常活动理论,探讨其形成机理。研究发现：（1）时空分布上,地铁扒窃案件存在早晚2个峰值,但滞后于地铁客流量高峰;白天,地铁扒窃主要集中在中心城区,在早晚时段,除中心城区外,地铁扒窃在城郊地区也有较多分布。（2）影响因素上,地铁扒窃主要受到客流量及建成环境的影响,不同时段影响的因素存在差异。客流量及换乘点在地铁运营的任意时段均对地铁扒窃有正向的影响,地铁站周边的休闲场所对地铁扒窃犯罪的影响主要体现在9：00以后的时段。居住地及工作地虽然整体上对地铁扒窃没有显著影响,但是他们对地铁扒窃案件的作用方向在各时段模型中的作用力度均相反。（3）影响强度上,客流量在不同时段对地铁扒窃的影响强度存在差异,而换乘点及休闲场所在显著的时间段对地铁扒窃的影响力度并无明显差别。Subway is one of the key transport modes in cities due to its fast and convenient system. At the same time, the criminal events that occur in the subway stations and subway trains should not be neglected. Although there has been a certain amount of literature emphasized the impact of environmental design on pickpocketing in subway systems, these studies ignored that residents＇ daily activities may also act as important factors on subway crimes. In order to fill this gap, this article chose ZG city as a case, the spatio-temporal pattern of pickpocketing in the subway stations on weekdays and their influencing factors were revealed based on residents＇ routine activity, environmental design in the subway system and the activity facilities around subway stations. Pickpocketing data in subway stations of ZG city, points of interest（POI） nearby subway stations,and detail information of subways stations（spatial distribution and structure of subway stations） were used in this study. In order to find out the spatio-temporal pattern of pickpocketing, we separated a set of full weekdays into four periods based on the passenger traffic, and allocated pickpocket cases to every subway station for each time period. Then, negative binomial regression models were used to find out the influencing factors on the spatio-temporal pattern on pickpocketing. Furthermore, Wald tests were used to compare whether there was a significant difference between the same independent variables in each model. The results have shown that： 1） From the perspective of spatio-temporal distribution, rates of pickpocketing were highly correlated to the passenger traffic in subways, but it should be aware of that the peak pickpocketing lagged behind the peak passenger traffic. As time went on in the morning, pickpocketing in the subway transferred from the suburbs to the city center, while the working time finished, the direction of pickpocketing transferred reversely. 2） Passenger traffic in subways had a steady significant positive impa

关 键 词：扒窃 犯罪地理 日常活动理论 地铁 

分 类 号：K901[历史地理—人文地理学]