基于雨量测站应急机制的洪水预报方法  

Rain-gauge station emergency mechanism-based flood forecast method

作　　者：刘可新[1] 梁犁丽[1] 李匡[1] 徐海卿[1] 马岚[1] LIU Kexin;LIANG Lili;LI Kuang;XU Haiqing;MA Lan(Beijing IWHR Technology Co. , Ltd. , China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院北京中水科水电科技开发有限公司,北京100038

出　　处：《水利水电技术》2018年第8期87-93,共7页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51309254);国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0405801;2017YFC0405804);中国水利水电科学研究院基本科研业务费专项项目(AU0145B402017)

摘　　要：为提高洪水预报方案的容错能力,改善雨量资料缺测或粗差情况下的预报效果,提出了基于雨量测站应急机制的洪水预报方法。通过构建测站降雨相似度矩阵(SRSM),量化表示测站间实测降雨的相似性。在此基础上,采用有限测站相似度加权法及时合理替换问题雨量资料,然后将处理后的雨量信息代入系统进行计算,从而保证洪水预报的及时性,同时改善预报效果,降低了预报方案对资料的敏感性。将该方法应用于上犹江流域,结果显示:对于典型洪水(洪号20010611),一般预报方法的洪峰、洪量预报误差分别为-24.8%、-6.3%。采用应急预报方法后,洪峰、洪量预报误差减小到-10.6%、1.3%。在雨量资料缺测情况下,对于流域的10场历史洪水,洪峰、洪量平均预报误差从18.3%、18.2%降为6.0%、6.7%,合格率从40%上升为100%。结果表明,基于雨量测站应急机制的洪水预报方法模拟效果明显优于一般预报方法,能够考虑实际应用中的突发情况,有效提高了洪水预报精度,保证了预报的及时性,改善了预报方案的容错能力,值得进一步研究与推广。In order to improve the fault-tolerant capacity of flood forecast scheme and the forecasting effect under the condition of lack of measurement or gross-error of rainfall data,a rain-gauge station emergency mechanism-based flood forecast method is proposed herein. The similarity for representing the rainfall among rain gauge stations is quantified through building the rainfall similarity matrix（ SRSM） of gauge stations. On the basis of this,the inaccurate data are reasonably replaced in time with the finite gauge station similarity-weighted method,and then the processed rainfall information is calculated by substituting it into the system,thus the timeliness of the flood forecast is ensured,while the forecasting effect is improved and the sensitivity of the forecast scheme to the data is lowered as well. The result from the application of this method to Shangyoujiang River Watershed is indicated that for the typical flood（ Flood No. 20010611）,the forecasting errors of both the flood peak and the flood volume from the conventional forecast method are-24. 8% and-6. 3% respectively. After the adoption of the emergency forecast method,the forecasting errors of both the flood peak and the flood volume are reduced to-10. 6% and 1. 3%. Under the condition of lack of the rainfall data,the mean forecasting errors of both the flood peak and the flood volume for the 10 historical flood events occurred within the watershed are lowered from 18. 3% and 18. 2% to 6. 0% and 6. 7% with the increase of the qualified rate from 40% to 100%. The result shows that the simulating effect of the rain-gauge station emergency mechanism-based flood forecast method is obviously better than that from the conventional one,which can take sudden emergencies into account,and then effectively increases the accuracy of flood forecast,ensures the timeliness of forecast and improves the fault-tolerant capability of forecast,thus is valuable to be further studied and popularized.

关 键 词：实时洪水预报 应急机制 分布式水文模型 水文相似性 不可用雨量测站 遥测信号短期干扰 人机交互预报系统 遥测系统自动识别测站异常功能 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]